Tag Archives: the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School

2020′s PREDICTION MARKET JOURNALISM = Polls + Experts + Prediction Markets

Posted on April 30, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Justin Wolfers interview: [...] Wolfers predicted that cable news shows would turn to prediction-market experts for analysis in 2008. â€œMy forecast is that theyâ€™ll either have someone in the studio whose job it is to track the markets, or … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Prediction Journalism | Tagged 2020, Barack Obama, business professor, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, Hillary Clinton, jounalism, Justin Wolfers, Koleman Strumpf, Paul Rhode, Pennsylvania, political elections, political races, Politics, polls, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, reporting, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School | 2 Comments

Prediction Market Journalism

Posted on March 1, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Credit: Scientific American magazine – Abstract Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree (an innovative firm providing software for enterprise prediction markets) Ask me by e-mail to get a copy of the PDF file. – The problem with the bold statement in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Prediction Journalism | Tagged business professor, Chapel Hill, Charles Evans Hughes, Dublin, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade.com, Journalism, Justin Wolfers, Las Vegas, New York, North Carolina, online prediction markets, Paul Rhode, Pennsylvania, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, professor of economic history, Scientific American, secondary forecasting tools, The New York Herald Tribune, the New York Times, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, The Wall Street Journal, United States, University of North Carolina, USD, Wall Street Journal, Woodrow Wilson, Xpree | 6 Comments

Contrary to Steve Levitt, Justin Wolfers knows where to find good soccer trading data.

Posted on January 12, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The Wall Street Journal, via Market Power: Messrs. Levitt and Gil found that the odds of a team winning jumped immediately after it scored a goal. But adjusting for other factors, those odds kept climbing for 10 to 15 minutes … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity | Tagged accuracy, BetFair, economist, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Ireland, Justin Wolfers, Market Liquidity, Market Trading, Niall O'Connor, online market, Pennsylvania, prediction markets, soccer, Steve Levitt, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, The Wall Street Journal, TradeSports, volumes, Wall Street Journal, World Cup | Leave a comment

Care to revise your statement, sir?

Posted on January 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Justin Wolfers: â€œIn a few years, we may regard the second half of the 20th century as the aberration in which the press used polls rather than markets to track political races,â€ Justin Wolfers, a business professor at the University … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Prediction Journalism | Tagged business professor, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Journalism, journalists, Justin Wolfers, Media, MP3, Pennsylvania, polls, prediction markets, press, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School | Leave a comment

Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.

Posted on January 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Why were the political prediction markets so wrong about Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire? …asks Slate’s Daniel Gross —via Mister Usability (Alex Kirtland), who needs to go and get his own gravatar. So, I’ve been watching the … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Alex Kirtland, Barack Obama, Barak Obama, BetFair, business professor, Chris Masse, Dan Gross, Daniel Gross, Donald Luskin, economist, Emile Servan-Scheiber, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, failure, fiasco, forecasting tool of convenience, Forrest Nelson, France, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Iowa, Justin Wolfers, Markos Moulitsas, Michael Giberson, New Hampshire, NewsFutures, Niall O'Connor, Pennsylvania, Politics, polls, prediction markets, pundits, Robin Hanson, success, The Netherlands, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, ultimate forecasting tool, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, western Europe | 3 Comments

Prediction Market History + Prediction Market Journalism

Posted on November 4, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The New York Times: [...] Long before political prediction markets sprouted on the Internet, election bets â€” whether the stakes were money or embarrassing public spectacles â€” were a ubiquitous part of the American political scene. The practice, which began … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, History, Prediction Journalism | Tagged bet exchanges, betting exchanges, business professor, Chapel Hill, Charles Evans Hughes, Dublin, event derivative markets, event derivatives, History, InTrade.com, Justin Wolfers, Las Vegas, New York, news media, North Carolina, online prediction markets, Paul Rhode, Pennsylvania, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, professor of economic history, The New York Herald Tribune, the New York Times, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, United States, University of North Carolina, USA, USD, Wall Street, Woodrow Wilson | 1 Comment

How do prediction markets benefit our society?

Posted on October 17, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

KansasCity.com (page two): [...] To advocates such as business professor Justin Wolfers, people can better plan their lives, their purchases and their businesses by knowing how much investors are willing to wager that, for example, mortgage rates drop. â€œItâ€™s an … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta) | Tagged business professor, Justin Wolfers, Pennsylvania, prediction markets, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School | Leave a comment

What to think of all those Wisdom-Of-Crowds sites popping up like forest mushrooms after an October rain?

Posted on November 1, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Via Art Hutchinson (just out of summer hibernation), this mid-October Wash Post article quoting two usual suspects: Justin Wolfers, a business professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, said collective wisdom — reflected for instance in the stock prices … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds | Tagged Alex Kirtland, Art Hutchinson, business professor, economics professor, George Mason University, Justin Wolfers, Pennsylvania, prediction markets, reading, Robin Hanson, sports betting lines, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Wash Post | Leave a comment

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