Tag Archives: The Oscars

UK’s Guardian lambasts Mr Crystal Balls Nate Silver.

“A less-than-brilliant Oscars for Nate Silver, who used his skills as a baseball statistics nerd to turn his politics blog, FiveThirtyEight.com, into the online hit of last year’s election. Silver predicted the presidential outcome with eerie precision, and gamely crunched … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

A Mystery Wrapped In A Riddle Inside An Enigma

How come HubDub managed to get it right, when all the major prediction exchanges (BetFair, HSX, InTrade, NewsFutures, and even Nate Silver) all saw Mickey Rourke? – 81st Academy Awards: Who will win the Oscar for Best Actor?

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , | 5 Comments

Hollywood Stock Exchange’s Alex Costakis makes historical mistake, TOO.

History of the Hollywood Stock Exchange: June 2006: Hollywood Stock Exchange launches the Sports Stock Exchange® with special securities covering the 2006 FIFA World Cup. April 2006: HSX Research wins contract for building Storage Markets, an innovative prediction market platform … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, History | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments