P(tax hike / McCain) = 74%.

APPENDIX: Robin Hanson does not know yet who he is going to vote for, in November 2008… and feels that no scholar can help him.

The most liquid of the Jason Ruspini-created contracts:

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I would like to talk a bit about the Internet marketing of these prediction markets, in the rest of this present post.

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As you all know, Jason Ruspini published a blog post on his (semi-abandoned) blog (spot the comments), was interviewed by Bloomberg, and then went to BNN (a Canadian business TV nobody would have ever heard about, otherwise).

In passing, I want to thank Fabian John of Tom Next (a German web forum on financial event derivative trading) for uploading the video to YouTube.

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Spot the referral stats at the bottom of the screen shot below:

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My Internet marketing thoughts:

1. The Club For Growth blog sent about 20% (22 clicks from CFG out of a total of 108) of all people who watched that video —even though the Club For Growth blog is much, much, much more popular than Midas Oracle (which drills a narrow vertical). This is consistent with what Jakob Nielsen has always said, namely that the Internet is in fact a collection of verticals. (See: Diversity is Power for Specialized Sites. “Small websites [like Midas Oracle] get less traffic than big ones, but they can still dominate their niches. For each question users ask, the Web delivers a different set of sites to provide the answers.”)
2. I think that the difference between the total viewership (277 views) and the referral numbers (108 clicks) is due to the fact that most Midas Oracle feed subscribers watched that Jason Ruspini video from within their feed reader (like Google Reader), and never had to “click” on the link to watch the video from within the YouTube page.
3. The above is a very interesting piece of Internet marketing wisdom, which prediction market firms (like InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair, Betdaq, NewsFutures, HSX, etc.) should mind —especially in light of the focus on prediction market journalism I talked you about yesterday

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Funny enough, John Delaney of InTrade stole the YouTube video (uploaded there by Fabian John of Tom Next), erased the mention of my (dirty) name (put up there by Fab who thought I would like this egotistic plug), and re-posted the video on the InTrade section at YouTube.

That Chris Masse-free copy of the Jason Ruspini video hasn’t attracted many eyeballs, as the stats show:

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If you wish, you may watch again the Jason Ruspini video from within your feed reader:

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Tax rate prediction markets – YouTube

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Related: Bloomberg

Previously: Tax Futures, “In Real Life” – by Jason Ruspini

[Y]es they have lost a lot of steam and that statement seems overconfident at this point, – or has always [been] for that matter. There was no real follow-through to the apparent trend of the first week or so. Lack of news flow is the main culprit. [...]

Previously: Video.

A possible trade that stands out on the board is to sell the 2010 “>36″s in the high 70s and buy the 2010 “>38″s for 50. I don’t see how a spread of 30 is warranted there, as any legislation that accelerates the Bush tax cuts sunset will likely put the highest marginal rate at 39.6%, higher than 38% at least. That is, I think the market’s implied probability of the rate ending-up in the 36-38 bin is too high. This trade would make roughly a 39% return on frozen margin, which could be improved to 50% by additionally buying the “>34″s at 95. (unannualized)

Jason “Avida Dollars” Ruspini’s tax rate prediction markets are finally accessible thru InTrade V2. Great. That allows me to publish dynamic charts, now. (With V1, there aren’t any.)

Highest Marginal Single-Filer Fed Income Tax Rate to be Equal or Greater than 36% in 2009 Tax Year

If carry can be seen as a type of liquidity subsidy, it need not be provided by the exchange. It could be paid by other traders, or passed-on by traders that happen to have interest-bearing accounts. Consider a contract that is set to expire at 100 with certainty at a future date. Offers below 100 then represent a carry payment, and prices in such a market imply something like a discount rate. This is not a true interest payment or discount rate because no funds are being loaned, but in some situations the buyer will gain the benefit of reduced margins on subsequent trades in addition to “interest”.

Take the new “tax futures”, which are structured as a “ladder” of binary options. Currently the lowest rung expires at 100 if the highest marginal tax rate is equal to or greater than 34% and zero if it is less than 34%. The next highest rung pays when the highest marginal rate >= 36%, and so on. Say we add a new rung that pays-off if the rate is greater than 0% and has no transaction fees. This would seem to be a relative certainty, and an offer below 100 represents carry. Furthermore, the buyer of this contract can then sell short higher rungs at reduced margin.

For example, with the 2011 maturity contracts, the current bid/ask on the “>38″ rung is 85/87.5. If a “>0″ rung existed and someone sold it for 95, the buyer can then go out and short “>38%” at 85 with 10 margin (corresponding to his worst-case scenario of negative tax rates: 85-95!) instead of the usual 15 margin frozen, plus collect the carry of 5 in the “>0″ contract by maturity. In absolute terms, the margin is only reduced by the unannualized carry of 5, but if the trader is right, he will capture a return on frozen margin of 900% ((85+5)/10-1) instead of 467% (85/15-1).

Likewise, an “impossible” contract would subsidize buyers. The 2009 contracts are currently 35 ask for “>38″. If a “>100″ rung existed and someone bought it for 2, the seller could then buy the “>38″ with 33 margin frozen – a subsidized 203% vs. a regular 186% profit in this case. (The “sponsor” is not interested in profiting directly on that trade and so the fact that the government would be owed all winnings if they are a US citizen doesn’t matter.)

Now it’s fair to ask why you couldn’t accomplish the same subsidy by just consistently selling for slightly less than and buying for slightly more than what you judge to be fair value. Aside from the facts that this could widen the bid/ask spread and make prices less reliable, the more explicit carry of the system described above is psychologically reassuring and should lead to more trade. It is very hard to distinguish between a 65% and a 67% chance of the next president being a Democrat – for good reason. How can a trader practically determine if a 2% difference in price is a subsidy? At the same time, the sponsor’s risk is more defined if they stick to contracts with near-certain payoffs. In many cases the sponsor will also be a market-maker, but this system allows those functions to be decoupled.

It could be argued that the risk-profile of the average Intrade trader is such that they are insensitive to these kinds of incentives because they are generally trying to grow small sums of money by orders of magnitude, as opposed to preserving larger sums. Even if this is an issue, the multiplier effect described above should mitigate it.

A more likely problem with this system is the danger of free-riders taking carry without providing liquidity to the sponsored market. The sponsor could deal with this by only extending small subsidies at any one time and ceasing to do so if he doesn’t see reciprocation. The fact that frozen margin on the trade earning carry is unfrozen only when an offsetting trade is made on the same ladder also discourages free-riders. The system could somewhat easily unravel though, with the “discount rate” collapsing to relatively useless levels. This would not be surprising, especially in the “>100″ contract, although subsidizing tax short-sellers with the “>0″ contract is more important in this market.

Remember, this entire idea is meant to work within the technical and legal structures as they exist.

[I took the shot when he was smiling ---saying, "Well, obviously, they are not EuroDollars yet", or something of that effect.]

Jason Ruspini @ LinkedIn

Jason Ruspini’s blog

Jason Ruspini @ Midas Oracle

[Jason Ruspini is the little joker who put up the "Meet Chris Masse" post, last year. Retaliation is something he should expect, of course.]

Tax rate prediction markets – YouTube

Related: Bloomberg

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Jason,

You’re almost perfect. One thing that intrigues me is that you’re pretty bullish on those prediction markets. How come you’re so bold, young man?

It’s 23:45 minutes in, here.

Afterwards, I met some of the guys from CNBC’s Fast Money, who were great. I wouldn’t mind doing it again.