Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: TARP

Peter Schiff on gold — again

Has the U.S. made the right decisions during the recession?

A variety of economists say that economic stimulus legislation is helping an economy in free fall a year ago to grow again and shed fewer jobs than it otherwise would. – NYT

Bank Bailouts Turn Profit For U.S. Government.

TARP:

Positives for prediction markets

Satyajit Das, in his 2006 book:
Dealers on exchanges charge clients a fixed commission to trade; the cartel of dealers means that clients have no choice other than to deal through them. The dealers are fierce advocates of competition except where it affects them.
In the OTC markets, dealers are more creative — they ensure that [...]

Here is a Wall Street pundit who is very quick to blame the prediction markets. But did the punditry of that smart ass performed better than the prediction markets, regarding last week’s vote on the House of Representatives?

Financial Times’ John Authers:
Prediction markets, summing the market’s wisdom, had it wrong. Last week, the Intrade market put the odds that the TARP would have passed by now at more than 90 per cent.
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