Midas Oracle .ORG » swine flu http://www.midasoracle.org Prediction Markets, etc. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 17:20:04 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Were prediction markets useless during the H1N1 breakout? http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/06/04/prediction-markets-h1n1/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/06/04/prediction-markets-h1n1/#comments Thu, 04 Jun 2009 13:17:16 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=14384 Continue reading →]]> Lance Fortnow:

Might this be an instance where prediction markets greatly out-performed the experts? In short, no. There were relevant markets but two big problems:

  • No one thought to create a market for the number of flu cases over a couple of thousand.
  • Prediction markets require a verifiable outcome so they were based on CDC confirmed cases. But after the flu turned out not to be that dangerous, the CDC stopped confirming most cases and there were less than 7500 confirmed cases by the end of May.
]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/06/04/prediction-markets-h1n1/feed/ 0 What’s next for the Swine Flu (H1N1) alert level: 4 or 6? http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/26/swine-flu-h1n1-alert-level-4-or-6/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/26/swine-flu-h1n1-alert-level-4-or-6/#comments Tue, 26 May 2009 20:34:16 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=14043 Whats next for the Swine Flu alert level: 4 or 6? ]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/26/swine-flu-h1n1-alert-level-4-or-6/feed/ 0 Making money on the spreading (or taming) of H1N1 http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/12/h1n1/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/12/h1n1/#comments Tue, 12 May 2009 09:57:17 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13821 Continue reading →]]> For info, see our good friend “Caveat Bettor”, which is the pseudonym of a savvy New York-based financial expert —who made no mystery of his real identity to moi (I won’t tell).

See also “Wiser Than The Crowd”, which is probably the pseudonym of a very smart financial expert, financial entrepreneur and prolific book author —with ties to InTrade (which he should disclose, if it were the case). [He denies. My update.]

History will have the last word.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/12/h1n1/feed/ 0 Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/04/hubdub-hot-predictions-this-week/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/04/hubdub-hot-predictions-this-week/#comments Mon, 04 May 2009 14:12:10 +0000 Ryan http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13737 Continue reading →]]> Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
Undoubtedly the biggest news coming out of Washington last week was the retirement of Justice Souter. As the dust settles, the focus is now on who will replace him. A smart trader wouldn’t forecast anyone just yet. That said though Sonia Sotomayor is getting a surprising amount of activity, now given a 42% chance of replacing Souter.

Science
Apparently the end isn’t nye, which is a bummer since for the last week I thought the zombie apocalypse might be upon us, and we all know how cool those look! There’s still a chance we face imminent annihilation though! Hubdubbers give the Swine Flu alert level rasing to 6 a 62% chance. Alert level 6 means we’re in a pandemic.

Entertainment
Yes that’s right American Idol will soon be over, and whatever your feeling about the show in general it has to be said it’s developing into a American Institution. This season Hubdub is forecasting Adam and Danny have a 79% chance of being the last two contestants standing.

Sport
This week the main NBA playoff game is between the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic. Who will win? Hubdub says the current front-runner is Boston and the forecast is that they’re likely to win in 6 games.

World

Don’t hate the player hate the game! Or in bad Italian Non odiare il giocatore odia il gioco. Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s Prime Minister is on the prowl for a ‘new thing,’ after his wife decided the 71 year-old’s flirtatious eye was too much. Currently Berlusconi, known for his young taste is 29% likely to next marry a 30 to 39 year-old.

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Cross Posted From NewsPundits

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/04/hubdub-hot-predictions-this-week/feed/ 0 Vertical Media vs. Prediction Markets vs. Mass Media http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/27/vertical-media-vs-prediction-markets-vs-mass-media/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/27/vertical-media-vs-prediction-markets-vs-mass-media/#comments Mon, 27 Apr 2009 17:58:59 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13676 Continue reading →]]> Let’s rank institutions according to who has dealt first with the swine flu:

  1. Vertical media and local media — starting Tuesday, April 21, 2009
  2. Mass media, news aggregators, and user-created prediction markets (a la HubDub) — starting Friday, April 24, 2009
  3. Centrally managed prediction markets (a la InTrade) — starting Monday, April 27, 2009

External Link: Google News Timeline

Previously: Our “velocity” tag

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/27/vertical-media-vs-prediction-markets-vs-mass-media/feed/ 7 Google users are digging around to get the probability of a Swine Flu pandemy. http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/27/google-swine-flu/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/27/google-swine-flu/#comments Mon, 27 Apr 2009 15:39:31 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13673 swine-flu-prediction

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Interestingly, the results are very different with “swine flu predictions”. Predictify is above HubDub in both cases, you’ll notice.

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External Links: – Google Trends – Google Insights for Search

Previously: Swine Flu Prediction Markets

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/27/google-swine-flu/feed/ 0 Swine Flu Prediction Markets http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/26/swine-flu-prediction-markets/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/26/swine-flu-prediction-markets/#comments Sun, 26 Apr 2009 22:09:47 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13653 Continue reading →]]> will there be confirmed cases of swine flu on every continent by july 1?

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