Midas Oracle .ORG » Susan Boyle http://www.midasoracle.org Prediction Markets, etc. Mon, 13 Feb 2012 22:24:30 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 The prediction markets chalk another one up, as Susan Boyle is sent packing. http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/30/the-prediction-markets-chalk-another-one-up/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/30/the-prediction-markets-chalk-another-one-up/#comments Sun, 31 May 2009 01:45:52 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=14258 Continue reading →]]> I have an ongoing disagreement with Prof Panos about how to report a set of expired prediction markets. He claims that one should report “the historic average of similar markets”. That’s important but not urgent. First thing is to report whether one prediction market of interest has failed or succeeded. I have explained that that can’t be scientific (to Panos’ despair) —it can only be binary (the marking of “stupidity”, in Panos’ book).

The probabilistic and statistical method won’t be used when one reports about the expiry of one prediction market. People want to know how that prediction market fared. You have to report it in a binary way (right/wrong, correct/false, failure/success). Then, in a second leg, you can report “the historic average of similar markets”.

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