Is this a knockout comp? The graph looks too mathematical to be anything else.

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Barry O:

If the teams are knocked out of the competition (or mathematically have no chance) then thats going to improve the probability of the other remaining teams. I.e. 8 equal teams would have a 12.5%, 4 get knocked out and the remaining 4 would jump to 25%, 2 more and its 50/50%.

The probability of the Steelers in the latter part of the graph jump from 20% to 40% to 70%(80%) nearly doubling. Important information in the graph, the ranges of 19-21% and 39-41% etc, is smoothed out and would be where “the masses” affect the price.

The final 2 teams jump up in the last week, but if the graph was somewhat normalised to take out the knockout effect, it might be easier to see if the Cardinals improved their % (24 to 30) while Steelers (80 to 70) went down.

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Anybody?

Jason?

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Only the Super Bowl, presidential debates, the Oscars and a few other broadcasts attract the tens of millions of viewers that major advertisers, including movie studios and big consumer-product makers like PepsiCo Inc., long to reach.

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UPDATE: There has been a recount.

98.7 million

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We need to compare the Super Bowl 2009 prediction markets with what was said on TV about the odds of each of the 2 teams.

Any guess about what we would find out?

Would that be interesting or not?

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For BetFair, follow this link. (Their widgets don’t go into feeds, alas.)

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