Previously: Wiser Than The Stock Market —- NOT
Ben Shannon (alias “-Jesse Livermore”-, who blogs at “-Wiser Than The Crowd”-) claims on his blog to have an uncanny ability at forecasting the future and profiting from it, whether it is speculating on InTrade’-s prediction markets or on the US stock market. Here is his stock market call from July 10, 2009:
SELL SELL SELL
The stock market is up about 12% since Ben Shannon’-s “-sell sell sell”- call on July 10th.
Spot the 10th on the chart…- Ben Shannon sold the exact bottom immediately before the rally.
Thanks to Deep Throat for the tip.
As I told you, I am blogging as often as possible on the other blog (Midas Oracle .COM) about the 2008 US presidential elections as seen thru the eyes of the prediction markets. As I wrote there this morning, I have just found out a truly interesting set of prediction markets at HubDub. (I wasn’-t able to find its equivalent on InTrade, BetFair, or NewsFutures.) It’-s trying to predict where the Dow Jones will be, come November 4, 2008. (As you may remember, the deeper the financial crisis, the more likely it is that Barack Obama will be elected president of the United States.)
As of this morning, the Dow Jones is barely above the 8,000 level (8,175.77), and the futures say that the stock market will rebound, at least in the first hours. However, I am bearish. I would bet that the Dow Jones will stay around the current level (or lower) until Election Day. In other words, I am betting on the red, on the chart below.
At what level will the Dow Jones Industrial Average close on Election Day?
[*] And if Emile (whom we highly respect, overall) is pissed off by that statement, then, great, that’-s a cool unintended collateral consequence.
– 2 pieces of research by HP Labs’- Social Computing Lab, headed by Bernardo Huberman.
– The Economist on how the US stock markets (not the “-prediction markets”-) can predict political elections. A bad piece, in my view.
UPDATE: Some smart comments, just below…-