Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Steven Cherry

Dan Gross is wrong about the (in)utility of the prediction markets.

… says the Spectrum blogger (Steven Cherry), in a long defense.

Incidental Odds?

Bet on It! – (page two – page three) – by Spectrum’s Steven Cherry
[...] A commercial exchange such as Tradesports, however, is in the business of making money; the fact that it generates useful information is only an incidental benefit. [...]
Yes, but it is becoming more and more an interesting benefit, since the business media [...]

InTrade-TradeSports is still plagued by the North Korea Missile scandal.

Any good journalist writing up a piece on InTrade or interviewing John Delaney does mention the North Korea Missile scandal.

Bet on It! – (page two – page three + a crappy listing of exchanges) – by Spectrum’s Steven Cherry
[...] Last year, a poorly worded contract by Tradesports caused a ruckus when some bettors lost money. [...]

Prediction markets is a meta forecasting tool.

Bet on It! – (page two – page three + a crappy listing of exchanges) – by Steven Cherry
[...] Chris F. Masse, a [] consultant in Sophia Antipolis, France, who specializes in prediction markets, says that by 2010, “10 percent of Fortune 500 companies will have gone public about their use of internal prediction markets, [...]

Spectrum has a long article on prediction markets.

Bet on It! – (page two – page three + a crappy listing of exchanges) – by Steven Cherry
In August 2004, Todd Proebsting, a researcher in Microsoft’s platform and services division, was approached by a manager in the company’s testing organization who had spent months helping to create a piece of software to be used [...]

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