Tag Archives: Steve Bass

Who did best in explaining the prediction markets to the lynching crowd?

Posted on January 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

After the New Hampshire fiasco, 16 18 people came to defend the prediction markets, so far. So far, the best takes are from: George Tziralis Robin Hanson Jonathan Kennedy and I’ll give the 4th spot to a combo, mixing takes … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Inkling Markets no good

Posted on August 28, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

As I said, I rarely look at Inkling’s public prediction markets because they are expired by volunteers who hide behind pseudonyms. How can I know whether they will expire their event derivatives correctly? I made an exception this morning, prompted … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

RESIGNATION OF US ATTORNEY GENERAL ALBERTO GONZALES

Posted on August 28, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

UPDATE: Steve Bass comments… I think you’re reading the contract wrong. The April, May, June, and July lines are all “Gonzales will leave his post in [insert month].” The August contract is different. Instead of “Gonzales will leave his post … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment