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	<title>Midas Oracle .ORG &#187; statistics</title>
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	<link>http://www.midasoracle.org</link>
	<description>Prediction Markets, etc.</description>
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		<title>Midas Oracle&#8217;s stats about John Delaney&#8217;s death. &#8212; [ANALYTICS]</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2011/06/02/midas-oracle-stats-john-delaney-death-analytics/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2011/06/02/midas-oracle-stats-john-delaney-death-analytics/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Jun 2011 08:56:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Midas Oracle Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[death]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Delaney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Midas Oracle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SEO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stats]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=25044</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Out of curiosity for SEO, here are some key stats about our coverage of the InTrade CEO&#8216;s horrific death. Note that these stats don&#8217;t encompass the frontpage readers and the feed subscribers (so, we would add many hundreds more, actually). &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2011/06/02/midas-oracle-stats-john-delaney-death-analytics/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.google.com/analytics/"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-25047" title="John-Delaney-InTrade-death-ANALYTICS 2" src="http://www.midasoracle.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/John-Delaney-InTrade-death-ANALYTICS-2.png" alt="" width="687" height="706" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Out of curiosity for SEO, here are some key stats about <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2011/05/24/intrade-ceo-john-delaney-42-died-on-may-21-2011-while-climbing-mount-everest-and-his-body-will-lay-there-obituary/">our coverage of the InTrade CEO</a>&#8216;s <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2011/05/30/john-delaney-orbituary-links/">horrific death</a>.</strong> Note that these stats don&#8217;t encompass the frontpage readers and the feed subscribers (so, we would add many hundreds more, actually). And that only one webpage (out of the many we wrote on the topic) is counted.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.google.com/analytics/"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-25045" title="John-Delaney-InTrade-death-ANALYTICS" src="http://www.midasoracle.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/John-Delaney-InTrade-death-ANALYTICS.png" alt="" width="689" height="726" /></a></p>
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		<title>Apples iPhone actually added $1.9 billion to the U.S. trade deficit with China last year.</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/12/16/apples-iphone-trade-statistics-china/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/12/16/apples-iphone-trade-statistics-china/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Dec 2010 13:55:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Global Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Apple]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Apple iPhone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commerce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic data]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[international commerce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[international trade]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trade]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US trade]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US trade data]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[world trade]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Trade Organization]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=22354</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Trade statistics are structurally crappy. &#8220;The concept of country of origin for manufactured goods has gradually become obsolete.&#8221; &#8220;In a speech in September in New York, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao cited that research to argue that trade tensions between the &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/12/16/apples-iphone-trade-statistics-china/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704828104576021142902413796.html?mod=wsj_share_twitter">Trade statistics are structurally crappy</a>.</p>
<p>&#8220;The concept of country of origin for manufactured goods has gradually become obsolete.&#8221;</p>
<p><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704828104576021142902413796.html?mod=wsj_share_twitter"><img src="http://www.midasoracle.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/iPhone-China.jpg" alt="" title="iPhone-China" width="555" height="357" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22356" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704828104576021142902413796.html?mod=wsj_share_twitter"><img src="http://www.midasoracle.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/iPhone-China2.gif" alt="" title="iPhone-China2" width="220" height="553" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22357" /></a></p>
<p>&#8220;In a speech in September in New York, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao cited that research to argue that trade tensions between the U.S. and China are overblown.&#8221;</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Predictive Modeling for Businesses</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/12/13/predictive-modeling-for-businesses/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/12/13/predictive-modeling-for-businesses/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Dec 2010 15:00:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Forecasting (Science & Practice)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecasts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mathematics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[predicting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predictions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[predictive modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=22297</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8220;It&#8217;s true that when we do custom projects, it is virtually impossible to get one started for less than $300,000.&#8221;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong><a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/business/26886/?p1=BI">&#8220;It&#8217;s true that when we do custom projects, it is virtually impossible to get one started for less than $300,000.&#8221;</a></strong></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Hans Rosling&#8217;s data visualization techniques&#8230; are&#8230; amazing. &#8211; [VIDEO]</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/12/01/hans-rosling-data-visualization/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/12/01/hans-rosling-data-visualization/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Dec 2010 18:50:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Information Technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Global Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[data]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[data visualization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hans Rosling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[numbers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=22059</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[UPDATE: Criticism.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/jbkSRLYSojo?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US&amp;color1=0x5d1719&amp;color2=0xcd311b"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/jbkSRLYSojo?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US&amp;color1=0x5d1719&amp;color2=0xcd311b" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object></p>
<p>UPDATE: <a href="http://mungowitzend.blogspot.com/2010/12/hans-roslings-chart-is-seriously.html">Criticism</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>Political Forecasting: Justin Wolfers vs. Nate Silver</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/10/24/momemtum-in-politics-random-walk/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/10/24/momemtum-in-politics-random-walk/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Oct 2010 08:39:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Forecasting (Science & Practice)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Gelman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Wolfers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[momemtum]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nate Silver]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[random walk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=21807</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[- Andrew Gelman nailed it: In summary, &#8220;momentum&#8221; can exist, but the places where you&#8217;ll see it is in races where current public opinion is out of step with best predictions. The mere information that a race has a 5-point &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/10/24/momemtum-in-politics-random-walk/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>- <a href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2010/10/politics_is_not.html">Andrew Gelman nailed it</a>:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 120px;"><strong>In summary, &#8220;momentum&#8221; can exist, but the places where you&#8217;ll see it is in races where current public opinion is out of step with best predictions.</strong> The mere information that a race has a 5-point swing is not enough to predict a future shift in that direction. As Nate emphasizes, such a prediction is only appropriate in the context of real-world information, hypotheses of &#8220;factors above and beyond the direction in which the polls have moved in the past.&#8221;</p>
<p>- As an appendix, and on another topic, compare <a href="http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/09/building-gender-stereotypes/">Justin Wolfers&#8217;s naive view</a> on genders with <a href="http://steveblank.com/2010/08/30/boys-rules-girls-lose-%E2%80%93-women-at-work/">Steve Blank&#8217;s informed viewpoint</a>.</p>
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		<title>Pollster John Zogby attacks statistician Nate Silver. &#8212; &#8220;You take other people&#8217;s polls, compare records for predictions, add in some purely arbitrary (and not transparent) weights, then make your own projections and rankings.&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/07/07/john-zogby-nate-silver/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/07/07/john-zogby-nate-silver/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Jul 2010 07:51:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Forecasting (Science & Practice)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecasters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Zogby]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nate Silver]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[polling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pollsters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=21537</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[John Zogby to Nate Silver: Don&#8217;t Create Standards You Will Find Hard to Maintain Yourself. Be Honest. Understand That There&#8217;s Much More to Being a Good Pollster. Appreciate Innovation. Do Some Polling. Nate Silver responds. UPDATE: Prof Andrew Gelman&#8217;s take.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-zogby/a-note-to-nate_b_636626.html">John Zogby to Nate Silver</a>:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 120px;">Don&#8217;t Create Standards You Will Find Hard to Maintain Yourself.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 120px;">Be Honest.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 120px;">Understand That There&#8217;s Much More to Being a Good Pollster.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 120px;">Appreciate Innovation.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 120px;">Do Some Polling.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/note-to-john-zogby.html">Nate Silver responds</a>.</p>
<p>UPDATE: <a href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2010/07/a_note_to_john.html">Prof Andrew Gelman&#8217;s take</a>.</p>
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		<title>Felix Salmon wins the ASA 2010 Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/06/15/felix-salmon-stats/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/06/15/felix-salmon-stats/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Jun 2010 13:17:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Journalism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[American Statistical Association]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Felix Salmon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stats]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=21441</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[American Statistical Association: ALEXANDRIA VA, MAY 14, 2009 â€“ Felix Salmon, a well known financial blogger who writes extensively about statistics, has been named the recipient of the 2010 Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award (ESRA) of the American Statistical Association &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/06/15/felix-salmon-stats/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.amstat.org/about/pressreleases.cfm">American Statistical Association</a>:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 120px;">ALEXANDRIA VA, MAY 14, 2009 â€“ <strong>Felix Salmon, a well known financial blogger who writes extensively about statistics, has been named the recipient of the 2010 Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award (ESRA) of the American Statistical Association (ASA). </strong>Salmon does quantitative, statistically minded reporting on topics ranging from the costs of counterfeiting to bank fraud to Nigerian spammers</p>
<p style="padding-left: 120px;">ASAâ€™s  ESRA Committee selected Salmon &#8220;for his body of work, which exemplifies the highest standards of scientific reporting,â€ according to the award citation. â€œHis insightful use of statistics as a tool to understanding the world of business and economics, areas that are critical in today&#8217;s economy, sets a new standard in statistical investigative reporting.&#8221;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 120px;">Salmon came to the United States in 1997 from England, where he worked at Euromoney magazine. He also wrote daily commentary on Latin American markets for the former news service Bridge News, freelanced for a variety of publications, helped set up the New York bureau of a financial web site, and created the Economonitor blog for Roubini Global Economics. He has been blogging since 1999 and wrote the Market Movers blog for Portfolio.com. Salmon currently blogs at Thomson Reuters. ( http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/ ). He is a graduate of the University of Glasgow.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 120px;"><strong>Previous winners of the ESRA include Sharon Begley, Newsweek magazine; Mark Buchanan, freelance science writer; Gina Kolata, New York Times; and John Berry, Bloomberg News. </strong></p>
<p style="padding-left: 120px;">The ESRA was created to encourage and recognize members of the communications media who have best displayed an informed interest in the science of statistics and its role in public life. The award can be given for a single statistical article or for a body of work. In selecting the recipient, consideration is given to:<br />
Correctness, clarity, fairness, brevity, and professionalism of the communication<br />
Importance, relevance and overall effectiveness in impacting the intended audience<br />
Impact on the growth and national or regional exposure of statistics<br />
Appreciation and emphasis of the statistical aspects of a particular issue or event<br />
Excellent coverage of research on statistics or statistical issues</p>
<p style="padding-left: 120px;">About the American Statistical Association<br />
The American Statistical Association (ASA), a scientific and educational society founded in Boston in 1839, is the second oldest continuously operating professional society in the United States. For 170 years, ASA has been providing its 18,000 members serving in academia, government, and industry and the public with up-to-date, useful information about statistics. The ASA has a proud tradition of service to statisticians, quantitative scientists, and users of statistics across a wealth of academic areas and applications. For additional information about the American Statistical Association, please visit the associationâ€™s web site at http://www.amstat.org or call 703.684.1221.</p>
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		<title>Google Prediction API</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/05/19/google-prediction-api/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/05/19/google-prediction-api/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 May 2010 22:51:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Forecasting (Science & Practice)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Information Technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[algorithms]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecasts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google Prediction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google Prediction API]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[information]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[predicting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predictions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistical modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[technology]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=21361</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Google Prediction API FAQ More. Via Prof Panos. UPDATE: Prof Panos has more.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong><a href="http://code.google.com/apis/predict/">Google Prediction API</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://code.google.com/apis/predict/docs/faq.html">FAQ</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/start/2010/05/googles-new-big-data-apis-a-big-gift-to-startups.php">More</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/ipeirotis/status/14320545136">Via Prof Panos</a>.</p>
<p>UPDATE: <a href="http://behind-the-enemy-lines.blogspot.com/2010/05/google-prediction-api-commoditization.html">Prof Panos has more</a>.</p>
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		<title>Kaggle allows organizations to post their data and have it scrutinized by the world&#8217;s best statisticians.</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/04/16/kaggle/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/04/16/kaggle/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Apr 2010 23:39:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Forecasting (Science & Practice)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecasting models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kaggle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=21074</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[http://kaggle.com/]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://kaggle.com/">http://kaggle.com/</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>SXSW: Nate Silver explains how he approached political forecasting for the 2008 US presidential elections. &#8211; [VIDEO]</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/03/09/sxsw-nate-silver-forecasting-2008-us-presidential-elections-video/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/03/09/sxsw-nate-silver-forecasting-2008-us-presidential-elections-video/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Mar 2010 10:57:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All Best Posts Ever]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasting (Science & Practice)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2008 US presidential elections]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecasting models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nate Silver]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[political forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[statistical models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SXSW 2009]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US presidential elections]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[In part #2, he speaks about the books he is writing:]]></description>
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<p>In part #2, he speaks about the books he is writing:</p>
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