Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Standard & Poor’s

What is the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets?

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 29, 2008 — 19 Comments

InTrade CEO John Delaney over-sells his prediction markets to a gullible journalist.
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Prediction markets are just an information aggregation mechanism (and also a collective anticipation mechanism), which highly depends on what the experts on the ground can discover. Prediction markets are not a magical tool. Event derivative traders are like bees; they harvest information and the [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

How the Standard & Poor’s will rate our developed countries in the future, if nothing changes.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 26, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Via Don Luskin:

Posted in Finance, The Global Economy | Also tagged ,

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