Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: spy

The “Israel bombs Iran” event derivative at InTrade should go further than the end of December 2008 to be fully useful.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 29, 2008 — Leave a Comment

They need to create contracts for 2009 —since Barack Obama takes office in January 2009, and since the timeframe given by that Israeli spy covers 2008 S2 and 2009 S1.
See my post on Midas Oracle .COM for more on the situation.
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Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , ,

U.S. Intelligence Community creates an internal Wikipedia. Will they use prediction markets, next?

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 2, 2006 — Leave a Comment

Intellipedia: 16 U.S. spy agencies and their 3,600 intelligence professionals will now be using a custom Wikipedia.
My Questions: Are (public or internal, real-money or play-money) prediction markets next? Of course, I won’t mention the Policy Analysis Market. Let’s be pragmatic and let’s take an example. How would have prediction markets helped Boeing develop or market [...]

Posted in Resources - References | Also tagged , , , , , , ,

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