Tag Archives: sports prediction markets

In Favor Of Sports Betting

History is not kind with people who used to call themselves “the pragmatists”. Take a look at how contemporary historians and commentators treat the French state men who did act as “pragmatists” during World War II —they collaborated with Adolph … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Ethics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 16 Comments

Chris Masse’s pragmatism

Supporting the development of big, for-profit, generalist prediction exchanges (which get most of their revenues from sports prediction markets); Asking the biggest prediction exchanges to organize socially valuable prediction markets. – Don’t you rate me as a “pragmatist”, doc? -

Posted in Analysis (Industry) | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

BetFair is experimenting a phenomenal revenue growth with sports prediction markets, as I am typing this post. Maybe our good friend the “pragmatist” could look into that, and report his research findings to the CFTC. I’m sure he’ll do. The delicious sound of a red-hot cash register, with the dollars (or here, pounds) pouring in like the Niagara falls —that’s “pragmatism” in its purest form, to me.

BetFair’s bet matching process stopped for one full hour on May 7, 2008, and their P.R. people are over-apologizing for it. They are apologizing for the problem, and for their slow response to affected customers —good move. They are also … Continue reading

Posted in Business, Exchanges & Markets, Market Trading, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

“What public purpose is served in the oversight of these [event derivative] markets and what differentiates these [event derivative] markets from pure gambling outside the CFTC’s jurisdiction?”

- My short thoughts on the CFTC announcement: Nothing new.. No good. Sports prediction markets won’t be allowed by the CFTC (no matter), and, thus, the US-based event derivative exchanges will never be profitable. (Remember that HedgeStreet V1 went into … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

The Marketing Of The Reading Of The Public Prediction Markets = What Robin Hanson has deep trouble with, and what the prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair) haven’t fully computed yet

- Robin Hanson on “silly” research topics: [M]ost people think futarchy (government by [prediction] markets) is silly, even though most think it has a decent chance of performing well [...]. – Decision markets and decision-aid markets are 2 great concepts … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Only bloggers do link to the prediction markets —mainstream media, like ABC News, never do.

Can NewsFutures Really Predict the Future? … asks ABC News (4 pages): [...] NewsFutures creator Emile Servan-Schreiber believes that prediction markets like his are the “future of journalism.” [*] “It gives people the news of today and lets them give … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

TradeSports has a new frontpage and a new sportsbook-like interface.

#1. New frontpage, which highlights the main sets of sports prediction markets. #2. A sportsbook-like user interface (in addition to the 0–100 event futures interface) —a response to MatchBook (the darling of MajorWager).

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Mechanism Designs | Tagged | Leave a comment

FREAKONOMICS: John Delaney of InTrade-TradeSports.

Freakonomics (last month): Q: Briefly, what is Intrade? A: InTrade is a marketplace, just like eBay or the NYSE, that provides innovative markets to trade, and the best darn predictive information on uncertain future events bar none! InTrade is a … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

SPORTS CORRUPTION: The dark side of the prediction markets

BetFair: Market Suspended – Martin Arguello v Nikolay Davydenko Betfair Customer Services 02 Aug 18:45 Betfair has suspended settlement of the betting markets on this afternoon’s second round match of the ATP Orange Prokom Open in Poland between Martin Arguello … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Trading, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Chris Masse’s short thoughts on The Financial Times + play-money InTrade

FT Predict = play-money InTrade by The Financial Times — #1. Great. – Great for InTrade (TradeSports’ sister exchange). A good line on their resume. – Great for the field of prediction markets: it brings additional credibility. If the prestigious … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments