Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

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How will the prediction markets respond?

Ireland’s largest bookmaker Paddy Power is already paying out on Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination for the race to the White House. They decided yesterday to pay out 50000 Euros to punters who had backed him at odds ranging from 4-9 to 4-1.
After his stunning victory last week in the Iowa caucuses, [...]

Fallon “Betfair Trial” Collapses

Mr Justice Forbes said today that Australian horse race expert Mr Murrihy in his witness statement had been critical of the riding in 13 of the races and that there was a prima facie case against the jockeys. However, he added:
Remarkably, it was only in cross-examination that the very significant limitations and shortcomings in [...]

GUARDIAN BLOGGER: BETFAIR SPIN-DOCTOR DOES NOT SAY THE TRUTH ABOUT SPORTS CORRUPTION.

Lawrence Donegan:
Odds-on liquidity showing interest in Scottish youth
Can it really be more than a month since Betfair’s Mark Davies appeared in print to reject the suggestion that the gambling boom is in any way responsible for the apparent increase in corruption in sport, by pointing out that dodgy dealing has been around since the days [...]

While TradeSports-InTrade’s growth seems slow, BetFair-TradeFair is poised to experience a formidable expansion in the coming years.

The Independent of Ireland:
Betting exchange Betfair is to steal a march on its rivals with the introduction of a new service which will boost liquidity and offer punters the chance to make bets at starting prices. Up to now, betting exchanges, such as Betfair, operated by matching bets on either side. But it will now [...]

Should the Hollywood Stock Exchange become a real-money betting exchange?

Via Max Keiser, Trader Daily ($$$):
Hollywood Ending – Trader Daily – October 4, 2007 – by Robert LaFranco
A decade ago, a Wall Street trader and an L.A. dealmaker united to remake the movie industry in the image of the markets. They had capital, ambition, securities-industry savvy and an American public captivated by money and celebrity. [...]

InTrade expired the Larry Craig prediction market too early.

Scroll down the whole story and judge by yourself, folks.

New York Times:
“As he stated on Saturday, Senator Craig intends to resign on Sept. 30,” Mr. [Dan Whiting, a spokesman for Mr. Craig] said in a statement. “However, he is fighting these charges, and should he be cleared before then, he may, and I emphasize may, [...]

BetFair has an anti-fraud team whereas InTrade-TradeSports has none.

That’s the chunk of truth that no US journalist or blogger or prediction market scholar will dare telling you.

Czarek Sokolowski / AP

The Los Angeles Times has a two-page investigation into the alleged corruption of that tennis game.
[...] In the room, it turns out, toil 40 people with 40 unusual jobs. They’re the “fraud team” and [...]

British bookmaker William Hill pays both sides on the Harry Potter bet.

Via Niall O’Connor, Bloomberg:
William Hill Plc, a London-based bookmaker, will pay out on a number of bets on the fate of Harry Potter because of an “ambiguous ending” to the seventh and final novel about the boy wizard. The bookmaker repaid 50,000 pounds ($101,060) in wagers and a further 40,000 pounds to fans who either [...]

GOOD NEWS OF THE DAY: The 2006 Wall Street Journal news article on internal prediction markets is still FREE FOR ALL.

BUSINESS SOLUTIONS: How to Decide? Create a Market. – (free access – subscription) – (this time via Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures) – [internal prediction markets used by organizations] – by Wall Street Journal’s Michael Totty – 2006-06-19

“We believe the technology has a lot of potential,” says Christina LaComb, a computer scientist in General Electric Co.’s [...]

Things got so bad that NATO was invited to provide technical assistance to help shore up Estonia’s defenses.

A NATO spokesman had it right when he said that in the 21st century, it’s not just going to be about tanks and planes.
CNET News on cyber war and cyber terrorism.

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