Tag Archives: serious candidate

Thoughts on the Democrats’ debate

Posted on April 27, 2007 by Alex Forshaw

Dennis Kucinich is stupid; Mike Gravel is utterly insane. Both make Barack Obama’s pacifist tendencies look like the second coming of Genghis Khan. Edwards’ performance was mediocre. When he wasn’t disavowing his $400 haircut, he needed to have a question … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Market Calls), Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Robin Hanson as Prospective Economics Nobel Laureate

Posted on April 22, 2007 by Michael Strong

Contra Robin’s recent claim that he has failed both the market and the academic test, I’ll take credit for creating some ideas the world has found useful, but I have completely failed both the market test and the academic test. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Danger of “self-fulfilling prophecy” in political event markets

Posted on February 6, 2007 by Alex Forshaw

People near the eye of the storm in DC have a way of always getting drawn to one side or the other, with very few exceptions. Those biases also creep into the polling business, making the outcomes of American politics … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta) | Tagged , , , , , , | 8 Comments