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They would do anything to sell politics, these days.

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Foreign Policy:

It’s a clever marketing ploy by team McCain, but why stop there? Why not have the candidate take positions in predictions markets such as Intrade? Wouldn’t we rather know how prescient Senator McCain is about the odds of bird flu striking the United States by the end of September, the chances Pervez Musharraf will step down as Pakistan’s president anytime soon, or the likelihood of a peace treaty between Israel and the Palestinians by January 2009? Put your money where your mouth is, senator.

InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair should let traders opt to make public their positions, and they should create dynamic prediction registries and leagues.

[...] Since the election season began, investors on Intrade have risked $4.6 million in trades on Sen. Clinton and $3.4 million on Sen. Obama. [...] Robin Hanson, an economics professor at Virginia’s George Mason University, says the predictions markets work much as other markets do, accumulating the best information of a self-selected group of people who are willing to bet money they are right. That differs from opinion polls, he adds, where people have no stake in the outcome and no incentive to get it right. “Markets give incentives to think carefully.” [...]

Funny enough, the title of the piece contains the phrase “prediction traders“. I like that.

[Robin Hanson]

[InTrade]

How did everyone get New Hampshire so horribly wrong?

These are the markets which accurately predicted the winner of every single state in the 2004 US Presidential election and the winner of every single contested state in the 2006 US Senate elections. These are the markets which said that Barack Obama would win the Iowa caucuses comfortably, as would Mike Huckabee. These are the self-same markets which forecast a handsome victory for John McCain in New Hampshire at the same time as the polls and pundits were declaring the race too close to call.

And yet the markets showed not a clue that Hillary Clinton would overcome the momentum of the charismatic Senator from Illinois, but instead declared the race for Obama with the same confidence as the media and the exit polls. Indeed, it took something of an avalanche of real results showing the former First Lady handily ahead before the baton of market favouritism changed hands.

So what happened?

The conventional wisdom is that the models used by the pollsters under-estimated the turnout of female voters by a significant factor. In the event, women, who make up 57 per cent of the New Hampshire electorate, went for Hillary by a margin of 12 clear points, in contrast to Iowa where she lost the female vote by five.

It was the tears that did it, comes the now familiar cry. Not so, in my opinion. The defining moment for me came in the final debate when the New York Senator [= Hillary Clinton] was asked a question about a likeability problem. Her response – “Well, that hurts my feelings!” was funny, warm and engaging, only to be interrupted by a curt “You’re likeable enough” from Mr. Obama. In his defence, the almost dismissive tone in which the words were delivered was probably unintentional. But the damage was done.

It was what those familiar with Hillary history call the “Rick Lazio moment”, when her Republican Senate opponent in the 2000 New York campaign marched across the stage at her during a debate and demanded she sign a pledge card he brandished in her face. Instantly he turned off a good proportion of New York’s women voters, and a not insignificant number of the men.

It all goes to show that the markets are usually a much more accurate predictor of election outcomes than are the polls, but there are times when those trading the markets are a little too dependent on charting and interpreting the numbers. Sometimes voters are motivated by factors which cannot be reduced to raw numbers. Those who are wise to this when it occurs stand to make a lot of money. Roll on next time!

Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams is the Director of the Political Forecasting Unit and Betting Research Unit of Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.

Hillary [Clinton] did not show good judgment in her areas of influence — the legal fiefdom, health care and running oppo-campaigns against Bill’s galpals.

“She hasn’t accomplished anything on her own since getting admitted to Yale Law,” wrote Joan Di Cola, a Boston lawyer, in a letter to The Wall Street Journal [*] this week, adding: “She isn’t Dianne Feinstein, who spent years as mayor of San Francisco before becoming a senator, or Nancy Pelosi, who became Madam Speaker on the strength of her political abilities. All Hillary is, is Mrs. Clinton. She became a partner at the Rose Law Firm because of that, senator of New York because of that, and (heaven help us) she could become president because of that.”

[*] I couldn’t get the damn link.

Previously: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2008 US presidential elections?

Donald Rumsfeld announced his resignation in this letter. InTrade can expire a Rumsfeld resignation event derivative on the basis of this letter.

In the Larry Craig case, where the US Senator announced his “intent to resign”, I think that InTrade should have waited before expiring the resignation event derivative. InTrade should have been true to its contract, which needed a resignation statement. To say “I intent to resign” is different than to say “I’m resigning” or “I have resigned”.

New York Times:

“As he stated on Saturday, Senator Craig intends to resign on Sept. 30,” Mr. [Dan Whiting, a spokesman for Mr. Craig] said in a statement. “However, he is fighting these charges, and should he be cleared before then, he may, and I emphasize may, not resign.”

Previous: InTrade expired the Larry Craig prediction market too early.

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New York Times:

“As he stated on Saturday, Senator Craig intends to resign on Sept. 30,” Mr. [Dan Whiting, a spokesman for Mr. Craig] said in a statement. “However, he is fighting these charges, and should he be cleared before then, he may, and I emphasize may, not resign.”

Aaaarrrrgh…

Slate Video – Senator Craig: The Re-enactment

Sen. Larry Craig plead guilty to disorderly conduct following his arrest for allegedly soliciting in a public restroom. Slate V delivers a re-enactment, based on the police report.

Minnesota Police report.

Bathroom Sex FAQ

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Yet another InTrade-TradeSports scandal??

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Sen. Larry Craig to announce resignation or intention not to run in 2008 on/before 31 Dec 2007 – This event derivative has been expired by InTrade.

The rules (= the event derivative contract statement):

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if Senator Larry Craig announces his resignation from the Senate or announces he will not run for re-election in 2008 on or before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if this does not happen on or before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract.

A resignation does not have to result in the actual departure by the contract expiry date but rather the announcement of the resignation must be made before the date and time specified in the contract.

Expiry will be based on official, public announcements made by Larry Craig as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.

The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account – Exchange Rule 1.4

Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

Important:
Please contact the Exchange if you have any query or uncertainty (including how it may be settled) about this Contract, the Rule above or the Contract Rules before you trade.

US Senator Larry Craig (on September 1, 2007 ):

Senator Craig Announces Intent to Resign from the Senate

BOISE, Idaho – Senator Craig made the following statement to Idaho:

First and foremost this morning, let me thank my family for being with me. We’re missing a son who’s working in McCall, and simply couldn’t make it down. But for my wife Suzanne and our daughter Shae, and Mike to be with me is very humbling.

To have the governor standing behind me, as he always has, is a tremendous strength for me. To have Bill Sali who has never wavered, and who has been there by phone call and by prayer, and his wife, is tremendously humbling.

For the leader of our party, Kirk Sullivan, to be standing here, who sought immediate counsel with me in this, is humbling. For Tom Luna—for any public official at this moment in time—to be standing with Larry Craig is a humbling experience. Learn more about Senator Craig’s top accomplishments

For most of my adult life, I had the privilege of serving the people of Idaho. I’m grateful for the opportunity they have given me. It has been a blessing. I am proud of my record and accomplishments, and equally proud of the wonderful and talented people with whom I have had the honor and the privilege to work and to serve.

I choose to serve because I love Idaho. What is best for Idaho has always been the focus of my efforts, and it is no different today. To Idahoans I represent, to my staff, my Senate colleagues, but most importantly, to my wife and my family, I apologize for what I have caused. I am deeply sorry.

I have little control over what people choose to believe, but clearly my name is important to me and my family is so very important also. Having said that, to pursue my legal options, as I continue to serve Idaho, would be an unwanted and unfair distraction of my job and for my Senate colleagues. These are serious times of war and of conflict—times that deserve the Senate’s and the full nation’s attention.

There are many challenges facing Idaho that I am currently involved in. And the people of Idaho deserve a senator who can devote 100 percent of his time and effort to the critical issues of our state and of our nation.

Therefore it is with sadness and deep regret that I announce that it is my intent to resign from the Senate, effective September 30. In doing so, I hope to allow a smooth and orderly transition of my loyal staff and for the person appointed to take my place at William E. Borah’s desk. I have full confidence that Governor Otter will appoint a successor who will serve Idaho with distinction.

I apologize to the people of our great state for being unable to serve out a term to which I have been elected. Few people have had the privilege and the pleasure to represent Idaho for as many years as I have. Each day, each week, each year brought new challenges and opportunities to create a better life for Idahoans. I have enjoyed every moment and cannot adequately put into words how much I appreciate what you have given me: the chance to work for this great state. I hope you do not regret the confidence you have placed in me over all of these years. I hope I have served you and our state to the best of my ability.

Lastly, Suzanne and I have been humbled beyond words by the tremendous outpouring of support we have received from our friends, our family, our staff and fellow Idahoans. We are profoundly and forever grateful. Thank you all very much.

US Senator Larry Craig announced his intent to resign, not his upcoming resignation (or effective resignation). Big difference. A resignation intent is not an upcoming/effective resignation. We know now, thanks to the New York Times, that there was an unstated conditionality —whether Larry Craig gets cleared before the 30th of September 2007. Thus, InTrade should not have expired the Larry Craig event derivative on the basis of that senatorial output. I bet that some traders will soon complain on the Intrade-TradeSports forum. They can contact me, if they wish.

More Info: – AP – MSNBC Video – Idaho Stateman -

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ADDENDUM:

Definitions of the word “intent” on the Web:

* purpose: an anticipated outcome that is intended or that guides your planned actions; “his intent was to provide a new translation”; “good intentions are not enough”; “it was created with the conscious aim of answering immediate needs”; “he made no secret of his designs”
* the intended meaning of a communication
* captive: giving or marked by complete attention to; “that engrossed look or rapt delight”; “then wrapped in dreams”; “so intent on this fantastic…narrative that she hardly stirred”- Walter de la Mare; “rapt with wonder”; “wrapped in thought”
wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn

* Intent in law is the planning and desire to perform an act.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intent

* Reiki is an Intent driven system. Intent is the key to using the Reiki energy in healing and Attunements.
www.reikithehealingpath.com/reiki_glossary.htm

* Intent is the plan and will to act in a particular way or choice to remain inactive.
www.attorneykennugent.com/library/i.html

* The singlemost causal agency in all action, creation, destruction and change at all levels of existence. That component of consciousness which gives rise to all forms. The means by which the Will of God and Natural Law is manifest. The essence and source of motivation.
www.eoni.com/~visionquest/library/glossary.html

* Humans appear to be comprised of two important awarenesses: The Conscious Awareness (usually experienced through the personality) and a Greater Awareness. The Greater Awareness resides at body center and is connected to a fundamental force Seers call Intent. Intent is the equivalent of a muscle in the physical world. It is the means by which action, change, and expression happen in both the physical and energetic worlds for all humans. …
sentecenter.com/glossary.htm

* the mood, message, or meaning desired by the artist
www.learner.org/channel/workshops/artsineveryclassroom/p1popups/vocabulary.html

* A state of mind (mens rea) in which a person seeks a particular result through a particular course of action.
www.iejs.com/glossary/Glossary_I.htm

* the subtextual objective of a character
www.austin.cc.tx.us/sbramme2/Glossary.htm

* Voluntary function of a person’s mind in purposely performing a perceivable act.
www5.aaos.org/oko/vb/online_pubs/professional_liability/glossary.cfm

* requires that one intended to deprive the possessor “permanently” of the property. Although the mens rea of larceny is the intent to steal, the focus is on the loss to the possessor, not the gain to the defendant. Thus, even if the thief did not gain in the taking, if the possessor lost in the process. Courts have also held that permanence can be more than keeping forever. …
www.voyager.in/Larceny

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PARTING SHOT:

The problem with most of the socially valuable prediction markets (i.e., the non-sports prediction markets) is that all depends on:

- how well the event derivative contract is stated;

- how well the related information is interpreted;

- how well the event derivative contract is expired.

With the Larry Craig prediction market, we have yet another example that InTrade (which gets plenty of cites in Midas Oracle * and other business media outlets) might not have done its job with the highest degree of professionalism required —at least in my opinion. Judge by yourself, scanning all the facts presented above by yourself.

In the summer 2006, I denounced the North Korean Missile scandal, and here’s what followed:

- I received an e-mail from InTrade CEO John Delaney saying that I could put a prize of $10,000 in the ‘lost’ column;

- I have been attacked by a second-tier phone-booth conference organizer, sponsored by InTrade;

- I received e-mailed insults from Ireland, sent on forged e-mail accounts.

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[*] 3,820 cites of InTrade, says Google Search.

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Next: Resignation Intent vs. Upcoming Resignation vs. Effective Resignation

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UPDATE: Chris Masse’s response to the Mike Giberson comment…

The real issue is not much that InTrade makes a mistake (we all do), but whether it acknowledges its mistake and compensates the victims. (In the North Korea Missile scandal, InTrade did not behave well in this perspective, according to my reading of the situation.) [...]

US Senator Larry Craig simply said, “I’m thinking about resigning on September 30”. He did not say, “I’m resigning, effective September 30.” There is a huge difference between the two kinds of statement. And this difference (and InTrade’s error) pops up today because Larry Craig is exercising his constitutional right to change his intent. [...]

Next: Donald Rumsfeld’s resignation letter – November 6, 2006

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UPDATE: New York Times…

Sen. Larry Craig has all but dropped any notion of trying to complete his term, and is focused on helping Idaho send a new senator to Washington within a few weeks, his top spokesman said Thursday. ”The most likely scenario, by far, is that by October there will be a new senator from Idaho,” Craig spokesman Dan Whiting told the Associated Press. The only circumstances in which Craig might try to complete his term, Whiting said, would require a prompt overturning of his conviction for disorderly conduct in a men’s room at the Minneapolis airport, as well as Senate GOP leaders’ agreement to restore Craig’s committee leaderships posts taken away this week. Those scenarios are unlikely, Whiting said.

Craig, a three-term Republican, met Wednesday with Idaho Gov. C.L. ”Butch” Otter, R, to discuss a transition in which Otter would name his Senate replacement, Whiting said. Even if Craig were to complete his term, he said, the senator would not seek re-election in 2008. Whiting said Craig remains intent on clearing his name through the legal process in Minnesota and by having the Senate ethics committee address his claim that his misdemeanor conviction should not be a matter for action by the panel. [...]

UPDATE: How US Senator Larry Craig managed to fool InTrade-TradeSports.

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UPDATE: InTrade-TradeSports should have expired the Larry Craig event derivative today, on October 4, 2007, and not on September 5, 2007.

InTrade-TradeSports should have expired the Larry Craig event derivative today, on October 4, 2007, and not on September 5, 2007. That’s their main error. Last September, they expired this event derivative on the basis on Larry Craig stating his “intent to resign” —which is different than to announce an upcoming or effective resignation. Larry Craig later changed his “intent” —he then intended to stay in the US Senate (providing he would be able to withdraw his guilty plea). Unfortunately, today, a judge ruled against his attempt to dismiss his guilty plea. So, US Senator Larry Craig is announcing today that:

1. He is not resigning from the US Senate;
2. He will not seek re-election for his US Senate seat.

The condition #2 is sufficient to expire the December 2007 Larry Craig contract on the “yes” side. (“Yes”, he is announcing his “intention not to run in 2008″.)

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UPDATE: Craig hopes to redeem himself for future lucrative job as lobbyist.

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Excerpt of the rest of the discussion:

MS. CLIFT: There are actually 51 Democrats, although Joe Lieberman generally votes with the Republicans –
MR. MCLAUGHLIN: What do you do with Lieberman?
MS. CLIFT: — and Tim Johnson is ill and hasn’t been voting.
MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Is he an Independent? Where do you put him?
MS. CLIFT: He calls himself a Democratic Independent, so he’s in kind of –
MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Oh, he’s inverted the word; not an independent.
MS. CLIFT: Right, exactly. But in terms of Senator –
MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Are we supposed to keep track of that as journalists? Are we supposed to?
MS. CLIFT: (Laughs.) Yes, John.
MR. MCLAUGHLIN: All right, please continue.

The rest of the discussion is about Senator Vitter’s sexual misconduct (with the “D.C. Madam”)…

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Exit question — quick exit question: Is it your intuition that this is the last we will hear about Senator Vitter’s subterranean life, if that’s what it is? Or is there more to come, another shoe to drop?

This question (among plenty of others) could lead to the formation of what I call a “flash prediction market”, that is, something that could be settled quite rapidly as political events unfold. InTrade and NewsFutures are not structured to offer such “flash prediction markets”.

The threat this cycle is particularly potent because Flynt has two ways of digging up the dirt: He and his team are plowing through [D.C. Madam]‘s client telephone list and, separately, he is once again offering a million-dollar payoff to anyone who can provide documented evidence of “illicit intimate relations with a congressman, senator or other prominent officeholder.”

Larry Flynt uses unethical means to fulfill a noble objective: exposing the hypocrisy on sex of the GOP politicians.

Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) has admitted that he put a secret hold on the Open Government Act of 2007.

Wikipedia:

Online Gambling Ban

In September 2006, working with former congressman Jim Leach, Jon Kyl was a major Senate supporter of Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 picking up on his father John Kyl’s pet cause. The Act was passed at midnight the day Congress adjourned before the 2006 elections. Prior to it being added to the bill, the gambling provisions had not been debated by any Congressional committee.

Senator, the prediction markets don’t say “thank you” to you.

The nation needs your help.

On April 12, the Senate Judiciary Committee unanimously passed the Open Government Act, sponsored by Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). The bill would strengthen the federal Freedom of Information Act, which is one of the most powerful tools Americans have to supervise the inner workings of government. More than 100 organizations support the bill, which would reduce delays in releasing government records and hold public officials accountable when they break the law. The U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved a similar measure in March — but that bill was blocked from reaching the Senate floor for a May 24 vote because an unknown senator placed a secret hold on the bill. A secret hold. On a bill that would help the public have greater access to public information. Think about that for a minute. We need your help to identify the ridiculous political antics of a senator who thinks we aren’t paying attention — a senator who thinks his or her interests are more important than yours. With one quick phone call and e-mail, you can help us unmask Senator Secrecy. This is not the first time a secret hold has been used to prevent open government legislation from reaching the floor. In August 2006, Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) put a hold on a bill to create a searchable public database of all federal grants and contracts. Stevens’ role was revealed only after online public advocates and journalists forced senators to go on the record about whether they placed the hold. And that’s what we want to do right now: get everyone on the record and find out who Senator Secrecy is.

For fun
When will SPJ’s “crowd-sourcing” reveal Senator Secrecy’s identity? We have created a virtual market to predict our success. (Relax! You’re spending only pretend money.) Check out this interesting Web site that harnesses the power of “group think.”