Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Senator

Are you a better predictor than John McCain?

Via Bo Cowgill of Google, via Foreign Policy, John McCain:

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They would do anything to sell politics, these days.
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Foreign Policy:

It’s a clever marketing ploy by team McCain, but why stop there? Why not have the candidate take positions in predictions markets such as Intrade? Wouldn’t we rather know how prescient Senator McCain is about [...]

Unlike polls, prediction markets give incentives to think carefully.

Via Wall Street investor and blogger Barry Ritholtz, the Wall Street Journal:
[...] Since the election season began, investors on Intrade have risked $4.6 million in trades on Sen. Clinton and $3.4 million on Sen. Obama. [...] Robin Hanson, an economics professor at Virginia’s George Mason University, says the predictions markets work much as other markets [...]

The New Hampshire Hypothesis

Finally, the BetFair blog publishes one interesting post. It was about time. From our usual British suspect, professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams (who was on ABC News lately) —who else.
How did everyone get New Hampshire so horribly wrong?
These are the markets which accurately predicted the winner of every single state in the 2004 US Presidential election and [...]

My understanding was that she wasn’t Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, so I don’t know exactly what experiences she’s claiming.

Barak Obama on Hillary Clinton. Everybody laughed. New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd (in a November column) continues:
Hillary [Clinton] did not show good judgment in her areas of influence — the legal fiefdom, health care and running oppo-campaigns against Bill’s galpals.
“She hasn’t accomplished anything on her own since getting admitted to Yale Law,” wrote Joan [...]

Donald Rumsfeld’s resignation letter – November 6, 2006

Donald Rumsfeld’s resignation as US Secretary of Defense (PDF file):

Donald Rumsfeld announced his resignation in this letter. InTrade can expire a Rumsfeld resignation event derivative on the basis of this letter.
In the Larry Craig case, where the US Senator announced his “intent to resign”, I think that InTrade should have waited before expiring the resignation [...]

InTrade expired the Larry Craig prediction market too early.

Scroll down the whole story and judge by yourself, folks.

New York Times:
“As he stated on Saturday, Senator Craig intends to resign on Sept. 30,” Mr. [Dan Whiting, a spokesman for Mr. Craig] said in a statement. “However, he is fighting these charges, and should he be cleared before then, he may, and I emphasize may, [...]

Senator Obama’s statement that kindergartners should be given sex education is the first serious mistake of his campaign, and Republicans are quickly going to move in to take advantage of it.

Tony Blankley

Excerpt of the rest of the discussion:
MS. CLIFT: There are actually 51 Democrats, although Joe Lieberman generally votes with the Republicans –
MR. MCLAUGHLIN: What do you do with Lieberman?
MS. CLIFT: — and Tim Johnson is ill and hasn’t been voting.
MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Is he an Independent? Where do you put him?
MS. CLIFT: He calls himself [...]

Washington sex scandal prediction markets, anyone??

Hustler publisher Larry Flynt is on a hunt.
The threat this cycle is particularly potent because Flynt has two ways of digging up the dirt: He and his team are plowing through [D.C. Madam]’s client telephone list and, separately, he is once again offering a million-dollar payoff to anyone who can provide documented evidence of “illicit [...]

The Society of Professional Journalists has a winner. –> US Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ)

SPJ:
Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) has admitted that he put a secret hold on the Open Government Act of 2007.
Wikipedia:
Online Gambling Ban
In September 2006, working with former congressman Jim Leach, Jon Kyl was a major Senate supporter of Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 picking up on his father John Kyl’s pet cause. The Act [...]

Let’s unmask Senator Secrecy.

Society of Professional Journalists:
The nation needs your help.
On April 12, the Senate Judiciary Committee unanimously passed the Open Government Act, sponsored by Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). The bill would strengthen the federal Freedom of Information Act, which is one of the most powerful tools Americans have to supervise the inner [...]

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