Midas Oracle .ORG » Sarah Palin

Good write-up of the Sarah Palin prediction market

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 13:26:32 +0000

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On the question of the candidates’ qualifications to assume the presidency, 87 percent of the people polled said Joe Biden is qualified while only 42 percent said Sarah Palin is qualified.

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 07:30:06 +0000

CNN poll

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Source: InTrade

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Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008

Mike Linksvayer — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 17:33:08 +0000

How frequent are arbitrage opportunities such as the following?

In addition to title, the reverse is true of OBAMA/DEM.

Do traders really think there’s some probability of McCain being elected as an idependent and Obama being replaced as the Democrat nominee?

Like the New Hampshire prediction markets, the “Sarah Palin as the Republican vice-presidential nominee” prediction markets (from InTrade, BetFair and HubDub) are bringing a bad reputation to the whole prediction market industry.

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 22:09:49 +0000

HubDub’s Nigel Eccles ridiculizes Paul Kedrosky’s post bashing the prediction markets after the Sarah Palin upset.

Chris F. Masse — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 19:52:41 +0000

Hilarious.

Democratic hatchet men disguised as “scholars” in the Press

Chris F. Masse — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 08:09:06 +0000

The title of the Politico story is, “Scholars question Palin credentials“.

Now, read the update to get a good laugh.

2 very funny headlines about Sarah Palin

Chris F. Masse — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 10:14:40 +0000

Huh?

The ubber president of the Pennock fan club responds to Felix Salmon.

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 23:09:39 +0000

Quit mulling over the VP-choice prediction markets, today’s real story is in the election winner markets.

Michael Giberson — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 19:01:00 +0000

I would suggest that the VP selections and the performance of the VP-choice markets at InTrade and elsewhere lend some validity to Chris Masse’s views on such markets. But enough about the VP markets, already. The interesting developments are in the election-winner markets.

Since just after 2 PM Irish time, when the NEW.REP.VP.PALIN contract briefly fell into the 20s (rumors had it that Palin wasn’t on a plane to Dayton; subsequently established that the rumor was not true), the contract turned sharply up to about 98 and stayed there until the selection was made official.

During that same time period, the “Obama wins” contract has slipped down a few percentages and the “McCain wins” contract is up a few percentages. Since at most VP selections are typically expected to affect final vote totals by 2 or 3 percent, the fact that the Obama and McCain contracts (which are winner-take-all, not vote-share contracts) have moved by 2 or 3 percent themselves suggests the markets think Palin is a fairly strong choice.

(But as I write this, the Obama contract is rallying back. Live blogging the prediction markets is hazardous stuff.)

UPDATE: As of Tuesday morning, both presidential markets have slid back to their pre-Palin-announcement levels, but active trading suggests continued disagreement about the information trickling into the market. Also interesting, activity has continued on the NEW-REP-VP-PALIN contract, with the price dipping below 95 (but back to 97 as I write). Since that contract expires at the convention – i.e. in a day or two – some folks are betting Palin will be off the ticket fast.

Sarah… Who?

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 13:41:18 +0000

She is at 59% as I type this.

(Sorry for my previous post about Mitt Romney. I consulted the political news websites before InTrade. )

Sarah Palin