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		<title>The best researchers on prediction markets</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/04/researchers-prediction-markets/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/04/researchers-prediction-markets/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Jun 2008 16:30:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[CFM: Scholars Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I&#8217;ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.) - Michael Abramowicz &#8211; Michael B. Abramowicz &#8211; (Law School, George Washington &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/04/researchers-prediction-markets/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>CFM: <strong><a href="http://www.chrisfmasse.com/3/3/scholars/">Scholars</a></strong></p>
<p>Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I&#8217;ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)</p>
<p>-</p>
<ul>
<li><strong><a href="http://docs.law.gwu.edu/facweb/abramowicz/">Michael Abramowicz</a></strong> &#8211; Michael B. Abramowicz &#8211; (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) â€” Post Archives at Midas Oracle</li>
<li><a href="http://wga.dmz.uni-wh.de/wiwi/html/default/mgac-65fc32.en.html">Bernd H. Ankenbrand</a> &#8211; Bernd Ankenbrand &#8211; (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke University, Germany, E.U.) â€” Post Archives at Midas Oracle</li>
<li><a href="http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d5/jdannan/">James Annan</a> &#8211; (Global Environment Modelling Research Program, <a href="http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/eng/">Frontier Research Center for Global Change</a>, Japan)</li>
<li><a href="http://strategy.sauder.ubc.ca/antweiler/">Werner Antweiler</a> &#8211; (UBC Election Stock Market, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)</li>
<li><a href="http://www-econ.stanford.edu/faculty/arrow.html">Kenneth J. Arrow</a> &#8211; Kenneth Arrow &#8211; (Economics Department, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.tomwbell.com/">Tom W. Bell</a></strong> &#8211; Tom Bell &#8211; (Law School, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.) â€” <a href="../author/tom-bell/">Post Archives at Midas Oracle</a></li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/jberg/">Joyce E. Berg</a></strong> &#8211; Joyce Berg &#8211; <a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/results.cfm?id=84">Profile</a> &#8211; (Iowa Electronic Markets, Accounting, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.business.txstate.edu/users/rb38/">Richard Borghesi</a></strong> &#8211; (Finance, Texas State University at San Marcos, Texas, U.S.A.) â€” <a href="../author/richard-borghesi/">Post Archives at Midas Oracle</a></li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.hpl.hp.com/personal/Kay-Yut_Chen/">Kay-Yut Chen</a></strong> &#8211; (Information Services &amp; Process Innovation Lab, <a href="http://www.hpl.hp.com/">HP Labs</a>, HP, California, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://research.yahoo.com/%7Echeny/">Yiling Chen</a></strong> &#8211; (<a href="http://research.yahoo.com/Econ_and_Social_Sys">Micro-Economic and Social Systems</a>, <a href="http://research.yahoo.com/">Yahoo! Research Labs</a>, New York, U.S.A.) â€” <a href="../author/yiling-chen/">Post Archives at Midas Oracle</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/people/crampton.shtml">Eric Crampton</a> &#8211; (Department of Economics, University of Canterbury, New Zealand) â€” Post Archives at Midas Oracle</li>
<li><a href="http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/ely.dahan/">Ely Dahan</a> &#8211; (Marketing, Anderson School, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.anitaelberse.com/">Anita Elberse</a></strong> &#8211; (Marketing, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.hpl.hp.com/research/idl/people/lfine/">Leslie R. Fine</a></strong> &#8211; Leslie Fine &#8211; (<a href="http://www.hpl.hp.com/research/idl/">Information Dynamics Lab</a>, <a href="http://www.hpl.hp.com/">HP Labs</a>, California, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://flakenstein.net/">Gary William Flake</a> &#8211; Gary W. Flake &#8211; Gary Flake &#8211; (MicroSoft, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong>Robert Forsythe</strong> &#8211; (Dean, <a href="http://www.coba.usf.edu/news/GCBR.pdf">College of Business Administration</a>, <a href="http://www.usf.edu/">University of South Florida</a>, Florida, U.S.A.) â€” <a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/results.cfm?id=83">Previously</a>: (Economics, Iowa Electronic Markets, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://lance.fortnow.com/"><strong>Lance Fortnow</strong></a> &#8211; Lance J. Fortnow &#8211; (Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, McCormick School of Engineering, Northwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://webfiles.berkeley.edu/%7Egamble/">Keith Jacks Gamble</a> &#8211; Keith Gamble &#8211; (Economics (University of California at Berkeley) &#8211; California, U.S.A. â€” <a href="../author/keith-gamble/">Post Archives at Midas Oracle</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.stuart.iit.edu/faculty/fulltime_bios.asp?ProfID=83">Michael Gorham</a> &#8211; (IIT Center for Financial Markets, Stuart School of Business, Illinois Institute of Technology, Illinois, U.S.A.) â€” Previously: (<a href="http://www.cftc.gov/">CFTC</a>)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/tgruca/">Thomas S. Gruca</a></strong> &#8211; Thomas Gruca &#8211; <a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/results.cfm?id=226">Profile</a> &#8211; (Iowa Electronic Markets, Marketing, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.bilkent.edu.tr/%7Erefet/">Refet Gurkaynak</a> &#8211; (Department of Economics, Bilkent University, Turkey)</li>
<li><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek">Friedrich August Von Hayek</a> â€” R.I.P. â€” The market as an information aggregation tool: <strong><a href="http://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/hykKnw1.html">The Use of Knowledge in Society</a></strong> â€”</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.reg-markets.org/about/advisorybio.php?id=1">Robert W. Hahn</a></strong> &#8211; Robert Hahn &#8211; (Executive Director, Reg-Markets Center, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) â€” <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/">Post Archives at Midas Oracle</a></li>
<li><a href="http://weber.ucsd.edu/%7Ejhamilto/">James D. Hamilton</a> &#8211; James Hamilton &#8211; (Department of Economics, University of California at San Diego &#8211; California, U.S.A.) â€” <a href="../author/james-hamilton/">Post Archives at Midas Oracle</a></li>
<li><strong><a href="http://hanson.gmu.edu/">Robin Hanson</a></strong> &#8211; Robin D. Hanson &#8211; (Economics, James M. Buchanan Center, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.) â€” <a href="../author/robin-hanson/">Post Archives at Midas Oracle</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.law.uchicago.edu/faculty/henderson/">M. Todd Henderson</a> &#8211; (Law School, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://mydruthers.com/">Chris Hibbert</a></strong> &#8211; (Software Architect, Zocalo Project Manager, California, U.S.A.) â€” <a href="../author/chris-hibbert/">Post Archives at Midas Oracle</a></li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.people.virginia.edu/%7Ecah2k/">Charles Holt</a></strong> &#8211; Charles A. Holt &#8211; (Department of Economics, University of Virginia, Virginia, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.hpl.hp.com/research/idl/people/huberman/">Bernardo A. Huberman</a></strong> &#8211; Bernardo Huberman &#8211; (<a href="http://www.hpl.hp.com/research/scl/">Social Computing Lab</a>, <a href="http://www.hpl.hp.com/">HP Labs</a>, California, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://frederic.koessler.free.fr/">FrÃ©dÃ©ric Koessler</a> &#8211; (Economics, Centre Nationale de la Recherche Scientifique, France, E.U.)</li>
<li><a href="http://lems.smeal.psu.edu/kwasnica/">Anthony M. Kwasnica</a> &#8211; Anthony Kwasnica &#8211; (Business Economics, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Smeal College of Business Administration, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://ai.stanford.edu/%7Enlambert/">Nicolas Lambert</a> &#8211; (Department of Computer Science, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.hss.caltech.edu/ss/faculty/jledyard/">John O. Ledyard</a></strong> &#8211; John Ledyard &#8211; (Economics and and Social Sciences, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, California, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://econrsss.anu.edu.au/%7Ealeigh/">Andrew Leigh</a> &#8211; (Economics, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Australia)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/">Steven Levitt</a></strong> &#8211; Steve Levitt &#8211; Steven D. Levitt &#8211; (Economics, Director of the Becker Center on Chicago Price Theory, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.law.uchicago.edu/faculty/levmore">Saul Levmore</a> &#8211; (Law School, University of Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.kauffman.org/items.cfm?itemID=576">Robert E. Litan</a> &#8211;  Robert Litan &#8211; (Vice President for Research and Policy, Kauffman Foundation, Kansas City, Missouri, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://ccs.mit.edu/malone/">Thomas W. Malone</a></strong> &#8211; Thomas Malone &#8211; Tom Malone &#8211; (MIT Center for Collective Intelligence, Management, MIT Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/%7Ecfm754/">Charles F. Manski</a> &#8211; Charles Manski &#8211; (College of Arts and Sciences, Norwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.princeton.edu/%7Eameirowi/">Adam Meirowitz</a> &#8211; (Department of Politics, Princeton University, New Jersey, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.milgrom.net/">Paul Milgrom</a> &#8211; (Department of Economics, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://ist.psu.edu/ist/directory/faculty/?EmployeeID=89">Tracy Mullen</a> &#8211; (Information Sciences and Technology, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/fnelson/">Forrest Nelson</a></strong> &#8211; <a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/results.cfm?id=1021">Profile</a> &#8211; (Iowa Electronic Markets, Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/gneumann/">George R. Neumann</a></strong> &#8211; George Neumann &#8211; <a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/results.cfm?id=59">Profile</a> &#8211; (Iowa Electronic Markets, Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.ryanoprea.com/">Ryan Oprea</a> &#8211; <a href="http://people.ucsc.edu/%7Eroprea/">Profile</a> &#8211; (Director of the <a href="http://cash.ucsc.edu/">LEEPS laboratory</a>, Economics, University of California at Santa Cruz, California, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://ebweb.at/ortner/">Gerhard Ortner</a> &#8211; (University of Applied Sciences, Austria, E.U.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www20.kellogg.northwestern.edu/facdir/facpage.asp?sid=1263"><strong>Marco Ottaviani</strong></a> &#8211; (Management and Strategy, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.) &#8211; <a href="http://faculty.london.edu/mottaviani/">Formerly</a>: (Economics Department, London Business School, United Kingdom, E.U.) â€” Post Archives at Midas Oracle</li>
<li><a href="http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/business/LIZDP.html">David Paton</a> &#8211; (Industrial Economics, Business School, Nottingham University, United Kingdom, E.U.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.dpennock.com/">David M. Pennock</a></strong> &#8211; David Pennock &#8211; (Principal Research Scientist, <a href="http://research.yahoo.com/Econ_and_Social_Sys">Micro-Economic and Social Systems</a>, <a href="http://research.yahoo.com/">Yahoo! Research Labs</a>, New York, U.S.A.) â€” <a href="../author/david-pennock/">Post Archives at Midas Oracle</a></li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.hss.caltech.edu/people/faculty/plott_charles_r">Charles R. Plott</a></strong> &#8211; Charles Plott &#8211; (Economics and and Social Sciences, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, California, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="https://www.chapman.edu/argyros/asbefacultyadmin/faculty.asp#DPorter">David Porter</a></strong> &#8211; (Economics and Finance, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.proebsting.com/Todd/"><strong>Todd Proebsting</strong></a> &#8211; Todd A. Proebsting &#8211; (Microsoft &amp; University of Arizona, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://cobweb2.louisville.edu/profile/Ray.html">Russ Ray</a> &#8211; (Finance, College of Business, University of Louisville, Kentucky, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://research.yahoo.com/bouncer_user/28">Daniel Reeves</a> &#8211; (<a href="http://research.yahoo.com/Econ_and_Social_Sys">Micro-Economic and Social Systems</a>, <a href="http://research.yahoo.com/">Yahoo! Research Labs</a>, New York, U.S.A.) â€” Post Archives at Midas Oracle</li>
<li><a href="http://econ.arizona.edu/faculty/Rhode.aspx">Paul W. Rhode</a> &#8211; Paul Rhode &#8211; (US Economic History, College of Management, The University of Arizona, Arizona, U.S.A.) &#8211; <a href="http://www.unc.edu/%7Eprhode/">Formerly</a>: (University of North Carolina, North Carolina, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/trietz/">Thomas A. Rietz</a></strong> &#8211; Thomas Rietz &#8211; <a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/results.cfm?id=470">Profile</a> &#8211; (Iowa Electronic Markets, Finance, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/x1922.xml">Richard Roll</a> &#8211; (University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/ross/">Thomas W. Ross</a> &#8211; Thomas Ross &#8211; (UBC Election Stock Market, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)</li>
<li><a href="http://www-personal.umich.edu/%7Ersami/">Rahul Sami</a> &#8211; (School of Information, University of Michigan, Michigan, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.stanford.edu/%7Esavage/faculty/savage/">Sam L. Savage</a> &#8211; Sam Savage &#8211; (Consulting Professor, Stanford U., California, U.S.A.) â€” <a href="../author/sam-savage/">Post Archives at Midas Oracle</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.puaf.umd.edu/facstaff/faculty/Schelling.html">Thomas C. Schelling</a> &#8211; Thomas Schelling &#8211; (Economics, School of Public Affair, University of Maryland, Maryland, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://us.newsfutures.com/home/people.html">Emile Servan-Schreiber</a></strong> &#8211; (<a href="http://www.newsfutures.com/">NewsFutures</a>, New York City, New York, U.S.A. &amp; Paris, France, E.U.) â€” <a href="../author/emile-servan-schreiber/">Post Archives at Midas Oracle</a></li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.econ.yale.edu/%7Eshiller/">Robert J. Shiller</a></strong> &#8211; Robert Shiller &#8211; <a href="http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/faculty/shiller.htm">Profile</a> &#8211; (Economics, Yale University, Connecticut, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.marketing.uni-frankfurt.de/index.php?id=535">Bernd Skiera</a> &#8211; (Electronic Commerce, Goethe University, Germany, E.U.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.chapman.edu/ESI/people/smith.asp"><strong>Vernon L. Smith</strong></a> &#8211; Vernon Smith &#8211; (Economics, Economic Science Institute, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.stanford.edu/%7Eesnowber/">Erik Snowberg</a> &#8211; (Stanford University, California, U.S.A.) â€” Soon at CalTech</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.econ.ku.dk/sorensen/">Peter Norman Sorensen</a></strong> &#8211; (Finance, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, E.U.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.marketing.uni-passau.de/index.php?id=65">Martin Spann</a> &#8211; (Marketing and Innovation, University of Passau, Germany, E.U.)</li>
<li><a href="http://people.ku.edu/%7Ecigar/"><strong>Koleman Strumpf</strong></a> &#8211; Koleman S. Strumpf &#8211; (Economics, School of Business, University of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.) &#8211; <a href="http://www.unc.edu/%7Ecigar/">Formerly</a>: University of North Carolina, North Carolina, U.S.A.) â€” <a href="../author/koleman-strumpf/">Post Archives at Midas Oracle</a></li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.law.uchicago.edu/faculty/sunstein/">Cass Sunstein</a></strong> &#8211; Cass R. Sunstein &#8211; (Law School, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Surowiecki"><strong>James Surowiecki</strong></a> &#8211; (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds"><em>The Wisdom Of Crowds</em></a>) &#8211; (New York, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.mccombs.utexas.edu/faculty/paul.tetlock/">Paul C. Tetlock</a></strong> &#8211; Paul Tetlock &#8211; (Finance, Business School, University of Texas at Austin, Texas, U.S.A.) â€” <a href="../author/paul-tetlock/">Post Archives at Midas Oracle</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/tetlock.html">Philip Tetlock</a> &#8211; Philip E. Tetlock &#8211; (Leadership, University of California at Berkeley, California, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong>Hal R. Varian</strong> &#8211; Hal Varian &#8211; (Chief Economist, <a href="http://www.google.com/intl/en/corporate/">Google</a>, California, U.S.A.) â€” <a href="http://www.ischool.berkeley.edu/%7Ehal/">Formerly</a>: (Haas School of Business,  Department of Economics, University of California at Berkeley, California, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.ices-gmu.org/people.php/79208.html">Dorina Tila</a> &#8211; (Economics, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.ntu.ac.uk/research/school_research/nbs/staff/61441gp.html">Leighton Vaughan-Williams</a> &#8211; (Economics and Finance, Business School, Nottingham Trent University, United Kingdom, E.U.)</li>
<li><a href="http://ai.eecs.umich.edu/people/wellman/">Michael Wellman</a> &#8211; Michael P. Wellman &#8211; (Computer Science and Engineering, University of Michigan, Michigan, U.S.A.)</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/">Justin Wolfers</a></strong> &#8211; Justin J. Wolfers &#8211; (Business and Public Policy, Wharton Business School, University of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.) â€” <a href="../author/justin-wolfers/">Post Archives at Midas Oracle</a></li>
<li><a href="http://zitzewitz.net/"><strong>Eric Zitzewitz</strong></a> &#8211; Eric W. Zitzewitz &#8211; (Economics, Dartmouth College, Massachusetts, USA) &#8211; <a href="http://faculty-gsb.stanford.edu/zitzewitz/">Formerly</a>: (Stanford University, California, U.S.A.) â€” <a href="../author/eric-zitzewitz/">Post Archives at Midas Oracle</a></li>
</ul>
<p>-</p>
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		<title>Academics to discuss prediction market experience</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/18/academics-to-discuss-prediction-market-experience/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/18/academics-to-discuss-prediction-market-experience/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Oct 2007 03:32:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Giberson</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[According to the preliminary schedule of the 2008 American Economic Association annual meetings, some leading prediction market scholars will be gathering to discuss empirical data from prediction markets. The meetings will be held in New Orleans in early January [2008]. &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/18/academics-to-discuss-prediction-market-experience/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>According to the <a href="http://www.vanderbilt.edu/AEA/Annual_Meeting/ASSA08_program.htm" title="Search for 'Zitzewitz' or 'Cowgill' once you get to the schedule.">preliminary schedule of the 2008 American Economic Association annual meetings</a>, some leading prediction market scholars will be gathering to discuss empirical data from prediction markets.  The meetings will be held <strong>in New Orleans in early January [2008].</strong></p>
<p>The &#8220;Prediction Markets&#8211;New Empirical Findings&#8221; session, organized by Eric Zitzewitz, of <strike>Stanford University</strike> Dartmouth College, is slated to include:</p>
<ul>
<li>BO COWGILL, Google, JUSTIN WOLFERS, University of Pennsylvania, and ERIC ZITZEWITZ, Stanford University&#8211;<strong>Prediction Markets Inside the Firm: Evidence From Google</strong></li>
<li>FORREST NELSON and PHILIP POLGREEN, University of Iowa&#8211;<strong>Predicting Flu: Prediction Markets vs. Biostatistical Models</strong></li>
<li>PAUL TETLOCK, University of Texas-Austin&#8211;<strong>Does Liquidity Affect Securities Market Efficiency?</strong></li>
<li>RICARD GIL, University of California-Santa Cruz, and STEVEN LEVITT, University of Chicago&#8211;<strong>Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>In addition to Zitzewitz and Wolfers, paper discussants include CHARLES PLOTT, Caltech, and ROBIN HANSON, George Mason University.</p>
<p>Sounds like quite the party.  I predict that the good times will roll.</p>
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		<title>The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets Workshop starts today.</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/21/the-growth-of-gambling-and-prediction-markets-workshop-starts-today/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/21/the-growth-of-gambling-and-prediction-markets-workshop-starts-today/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 May 2007 13:44:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>George Tziralis</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[In a few hours, the workshop The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications starts at Palm Desert, California. The quality of presenters is excellent and the workshop has succeeded in attracting high level contributions. The program &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/21/the-growth-of-gambling-and-prediction-markets-workshop-starts-today/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a few hours, the workshop <a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/index.php?content=conferences/economica2007/economica2007.html"><strong>The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications</strong></a> starts at Palm Desert, California.</p>
<p>The quality of presenters is excellent and the workshop has succeeded in attracting high level contributions. The program and complete list of papers to be presented are available <a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/conferences/economica2007/economica2007program.pdf">here</a>, while directly related to prediction markets papers are:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/conferences/economica2007/erikson-gdi.pdf">Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?</a> by <em>Bob Erikson</em>, Columbia University and <em>Chris Wlezien</em>, Temple University</li>
<li><a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/conferences/economica2007/markellos-gdi.pdf">Optimal Price Setting in Fixed-Odds Betting Markets Under Information</a> by <em>Raphael Markellos</em> and <em>Vasiliki A. Makropoulou</em>, Athens University of Economics and Business</li>
<li><a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/conferences/economica2007/sade-pmpp.pdf">Hitting Home Runs and the Art of Corporate Valuation: Do Managers or the Prediction Market Make Better Predictions?</a> by <em>Orly Sade</em>, New York University and Hebrew University</li>
<li><a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/conferences/economica2007/bergfjord-pmpp.pdf">Prediction Markets as a Tool for Management of Political Risk</a> by <em>Ole Jakob Bergfjord</em>, Norwegian School of Economics</li>
<li><a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/conferences/economica2007/gruca-pmpp.pdf">Public Signal Bias and Prediction Market Accuracy</a> by <em>Tom Gruca</em> and <em>Joyce E. Berg</em>, University of Iowa</li>
<li><a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/conferences/economica2007/page-pmpp.pdf">Ignorance Prior Bias in Prediction Markets</a> by <em>Lionel Page</em>, University of Westminster</li>
<li><a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/conferences/economica2007/zhou-sb.pdf">An Analysis of Tradesportsâ€™ 2005-06 National Football League Prediction Market</a> by <em>Feng Zhou</em> and <em>Philip O&#8217;Connor</em>, University of Waikato</li>
<li><a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/conferences/economica2007/levitt-sb.pdf">Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup</a> by <em>Steve Levitt</em>, University of Chicago and <em>Ricard Gil</em>, University of California at Santa Cruz</li>
<li><a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/conferences/economica2007/luckner-gpm.pdf">Price Formation in Sports Prediction Markets: A Cross-Cultural Study</a> by <em>Stefan Luckner</em>, University of Karlsruhe</li>
<li><a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/conferences/economica2007/chen-gpm.pdf">Socially Embedded Prediction Markets</a> by <em>Yiling Chen</em> and <em>David M. Pennock</em>, Yahoo! Research</li>
<li><a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/conferences/economica2007/hanson-ps.pdf">Manipulators Increase Information Market Accuracy</a> by <em>Robin Hanson</em>, George Mason University and <em>Ryan Oprea</em>, University of California, Santa Cruz</li>
<li><a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/conferences/economica2007/wolfers-ps.pdf">Is There a Favorite-Longshot Bias in Election Prediction Markets?</a> by <em>Justin Wolfers</em>, University of Pennsylvania, <em>Eric Zitzewitz</em>, Stanford University and <em>Andrew Leigh</em>, Australian National University</li>
<li><a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/conferences/economica2007/zitzewitz-ps.pdf">Using Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq War</a> by <em>Eric Zitzewitz</em>, Stanford University and <em>Justin Wolfers</em>, University of Pennsylvania</li>
</ul>
<p>The exponential pattern of growth recorded in <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/11/01/an-extended-literature-review-on-prediction-markets/">my literature review</a> of the field remains consistent, at least.</p>
<p><em>Cross-posted from <a href="http://gtziralis.com/post/2209395">gtziralis.com</a>.</em></p>
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		<title>The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/14/the-growth-of-gambling-and-prediction-markets-economic-and-financial-implications-2/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/14/the-growth-of-gambling-and-prediction-markets-economic-and-financial-implications-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Apr 2007 20:36:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Events & Meetings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Albert N. Link]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications &#8211; University of California at Riverside, Palm Desert, California, U.S.A. &#8211; 2007-05-10~22 Gambling: Design and Implementation 1 - â€œAn Examination of the Determinants of Biased Behaviour in a Market &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/14/the-growth-of-gambling-and-prediction-markets-economic-and-financial-implications-2/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong><a href="http://palmdesert.ucr.edu/" title="The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications">The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications</a></strong> &#8211; University of California at Riverside, Palm Desert, California, U.S.A. &#8211; 2007-05-10~22</p>
<p style="margin-left: 40px"><strong>Gambling: Design and Implementation 1</strong><br />
- â€œAn Examination of the Determinants of Biased Behaviour in a Market for State Contingent Claimsâ€ Professor Johnnie Johnson, Southampton University Professor Alistair Bruce, University of Nottingham Jiejun Yu, University of Birmingham<br />
- â€œNon-Expected Utility Models and Heterogeneity in Risk Attitudes: Towards an Explanation of Gambling Outcomes for Individuals and Marketsâ€ Professor David Peel, Lancaster University<br />
- â€œEvidence of a Weekend Effect in a Market for State Contingent Claimsâ€ Professor Johnnie Johnson, Southampton University Dr. Ming-Chien Sung, Southampton University<br />
<strong>Gambling: Design and Implementation 2</strong><br />
- â€œAn Examination of the Economic Behavior In Buying Lottery Ticketsâ€ Professor Drew B. Winters, Texas Tech University<br />
- â€œWhy Score Probability Forecasts Categorically? Empirical Evidence of Increased Betting&#8221; Professor David Johnstone, University of Sydney Professor David Grant, University of Sydney<br />
&#8220;Optimal Betting Strategies for Simultaneous Gamesâ€ Professor Andrew Grant, University of Sydney<br />
<strong>Gambling: Design and Implementation 3</strong><br />
- â€œAre Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?â€ Professor Bob Erikson, Columbia University<br />
- â€œUnder Information Uncertaintyâ€ Professor Raphael Markellos, Athens University of Economics and Business<br />
- â€œBetting on Yourself &#8230; and Losing: The Economics of Weight Loss Betsâ€ Professor John Lynham, University of California, Santa Barbara<br />
<strong>Gambling and Public Policy 1</strong><br />
- â€œGambling with Public Monies: Would a Prediction Market Improve the Performance of the SBIR Program?â€ Professor Albert N. Link, University of North Carolina at Greensboro Professor John T. Scott, Dartmouth College<br />
- â€œThe Lure of Gambling: Wellspring of Revenue or a Faustian Bargainâ€ Professor Richard McGowan, Boston College<br />
- â€œCompetition and Monopoly in the Gambling: Market-A Theoretical Approachâ€ Professor Herbert Walther, Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration<br />
<strong>Gambling and Public Policy 2</strong><br />
- â€œDifferent Country, Different Millennium, Different Technology. Same Subsidy. Same Result?â€ Professor Ramon DeGennaro, University of Tennessee<br />
- â€œWhat Does a Concept Attract? The Case of Gaming in Macauâ€ Professor Raymond So, Chinese University of Hong Kong<br />
- â€œAn Economic Analysis of Problem Gambling, The Gamblerâ€™s Fallacy, and the Taxation of Gamblingâ€ Professor John Pierson, University of Kent<br />
<strong>Gambling and Public Policy 3</strong><br />
- â€œIs Casino Gaming a Productive Sector? A Conceptual and Cross-Jurisdiction Analysisâ€ Professor Ricardo Siu, University of Macau<br />
- â€œProductivity Measurement in Gambling: Plant-level Evidence from the United Kingdomâ€ Professor David Paton, University of Nottingham Professor Donald Siegel, University of California at Riverside Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams, Nottingham Trent University<br />
- â€œThe Impact of Casino Gambling on Housing Markets: A Hedonic Approachâ€ Professor Mike Wenz, Winona State University<br />
<strong>Casinos and Economic Growth</strong><br />
- â€œThe Casino Effect: Do Casinos Spur Growth and Which Communities Benefit?â€ Professor Chad D. Cotti, University of South Carolina<br />
- â€œThe Effect of Legalized Gambling on State Tax Revenueâ€ Professor Douglas Walker, Georgia College<br />
- â€œSpatial Characteristics of Gambling Expansion &#8211; An Analysis of Cross Border Effectsâ€ Professor Shannon Neibergs, Washington State University<br />
<strong>Horse Racing</strong><br />
- â€œInferring Risk Preferences Using Synthetic Win Bets in Horse Betting &#8216;Exotic&#8217; Marketsâ€ Professor Philip O&#8217;Connor, University of Waikato<br />
- â€œThe Parimutuel Kelly Probability Scoring Ruleâ€ Professor David Johnstone, University of Sydney<br />
- â€œEfficiency and Arbitrage Across Parimutuel Poolsâ€ Professor Marshall Gramm, Rhodes College<br />
<strong>Prediction Markets and Public Policy 1</strong><br />
- â€œHitting Home Runs and the Art of Corporate Valuation: Do Managers or the Prediction Market Make Better Predictions?â€ Professor Orly Sade, New York University and Hebrew University<br />
- â€œSpread Betting as a Self-Enforcing Implicit Cartelâ€ Professor Schnytzer, Adi, Bar Ilan University Professor Avichai Snir, Bar Ilan University<br />
- â€œPrediction Markets as a Tool for Management of Political Riskâ€ Professor Ole Jakob Bergfjord, Norwegian School of Economics<br />
<strong>Prediction Markets and Public Policy 2</strong><br />
- â€œThe Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implicationsâ€ Professor Alexander Koch, Royal Holloway College-University of London<br />
- â€œPublic Signal Bias and Prediction Market Accuracyâ€ Professor Tom Gruca, University of Iowa<br />
- â€œIgnorance Prior Bias in Prediction Marketsâ€ Professor Lionel Page, University of Westminster<br />
<strong>Sports Betting 1</strong><br />
- â€œAmbiguity, Rules, and Asset Prices: The College Football Wagering Marketâ€ Professor Ron Mau, Western Carolina University<br />
- â€œDoes Sportsbook.com Set Pointspreads to Maximize Profits? Tests of the Levitt Model of Sportsbook Behaviorâ€ Professor Rodney J. Paul, St. Bonaventure University Andrew Weinbach<br />
- â€œMarket Efficiency and Internet Betting: Evidence from European Footballâ€ Professor Bruno Deschamps, University of Bath<br />
<strong>Sports Betting 2</strong><br />
- â€œThe Economics of the Setting of Bookmakersâ€™ Oddsâ€ Professor John Pierson, University of Kent<br />
- â€œAn Analysis of Tradesportsâ€™ 2005-06 National Football League Prediction Marketâ€ Professor Feng Zhou, University of Waikato TBA Professor William H. Dare, Oklahoma State University<br />
<strong>Sports Betting 3</strong><br />
- â€œTesting the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cupâ€ Professor Steve Levitt, University of Chicago Professor Ricard Gil, University of California at Santa Cruz<br />
- â€œThe Impact of Sentiment on Point Spreads in the College Football Wagering Marketâ€ Professor Greg Durham, Montana State University TBA Professor Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross<br />
<strong>Favorite-Longshot Bias</strong><br />
- â€œAn Alternative Explanation of the Favoriteâ€“Longshot Biasâ€ Professor Stefan Winter, Ruhr-UniversitÃ¤t Bochum<br />
- â€œThe Link between Information and the Favorite-Longshot Bias in Pari-mutuel Wagering Marketsâ€ Professor Andy Weinbach, Coastal Carolina University<br />
- â€œAnyone for Tennis (Betting)?â€ Professor Ian McHale, Salford University<br />
<strong>Gambling and Prediction Markets: Experimental Methods</strong><br />
- â€œTime-inconsistent Risk Preferences in a Laboratory Experimentâ€ Professor Jeremy Ko, Penn State<br />
- â€œThe Effect of Prior Beliefs and Outcomes on Information Processing in an Investment Experimentâ€ Professor Jeremy Ko, Penn State<br />
- â€œForecasting Volume of Transactions in a Betting Market: An Experimentâ€ Professor Loreto Llorente, Universidad PÃºblica de Navarra<br />
<strong>Gambling and Prediction Markets: Cross Cultural and Sociological Perspectives</strong><br />
- â€œPrice Formation in Sports Prediction Markets: A Cross-Cultural Studyâ€ Professor Stefan Luckner, University of Karlsruhe<br />
- â€œSocially Embedded Prediction Marketsâ€ Dr. Yiling Chen, Yahoo! Research<br />
- â€œDo More Opportunities Lead to More Gamblers? Explaining the Growth in Gambling in the U.S. from a Cultural Perspectiveâ€ Professor Andrew Economopoulos, Ursinus College<br />
<strong>Plenary Session</strong><br />
- â€œManipulators Increase Information Market Accuracyâ€ Professor Robin Hanson, George Mason University<br />
- â€œIs There a Favorite-Longshot Bias in Election Prediction Markets?â€ Professor Justin Wolfers, University of Pennsylvania<br />
- â€œUsing Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq Warâ€ Professor Eric Zitzewitz, Stanford University</p>
<p style="margin-left: 40px"><strong>Organizers: Donald Siegel, David Paton, Leighton Vaughan-Williams and William Ziemba </strong></p>
<p>Very impressive.</p>
<p>Plenty of papers that I will read and excerpt ASAP.</p>
<p>Feel free to publish a review of a paper on Midas Oracle, if you wish.</p>
<p>Psstt&#8230; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Imus" title="Wikipedia">Don Imus</a> was born <strong>in Riverside</strong>, California. <img src='http://www.midasoracle.org/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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