Tag Archives: Ryan Oprea

The best researchers on prediction markets

CFM: Scholars Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.) – Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington … Continue reading

Posted in People, Resources - References | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Manipulators Increase Prediction Market Accuracy

Manipulators Increase Prediction Market Accuracy – (PPT file) – by Robin Hanson and Ryan Oprea – 2007-08-16

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Deep-Pocketed Manipulators are a Prediction Market’s Friend.

The re-publication of the Tim Hartford column on possible manipulation of the Clinton prediction market at Intrade provides an occasion for additional thought. (As noted by Chris Masse, on July 7 Slate published the Hartford column that initially appeared June … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

THE 2007-07-07 LUCKY DAY: Washington Post’s Slate.com links to Eric Zitzewitz’s piece on Midas Oracle.

Tim Harford: The economists Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz have pointed out that Hillary Clinton’s chances of becoming president, as predicted by one betting market, InTrade, started to climb dramatically mid-May, topping 40 per cent after months of fluctuating between … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Manipulation of the Hillary Clinton event derivative? Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz + Koleman Strumpf and Paul Rhode + Robin Hanson and Ryan Oprea

Tim Harford: The economists Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz have pointed out that Hillary Clinton’s chances of becoming president, as predicted by one betting market, InTrade, started to climb dramatically mid-May, topping 40 per cent after months of fluctuating between … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets Workshop starts today.

In a few hours, the workshop The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications starts at Palm Desert, California. The quality of presenters is excellent and the workshop has succeeded in attracting high level contributions. The program … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Betting, Economics, Gambling | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment