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Tag Archives: Rick Borghesi

Has Justin Wolfers responded elsewhere to Rick Borghesi’s argument?

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 15, 2007 — 2 Comments

Rick Borghesi, in August 2007:
[...] I take the position (PDF) that, while point shaving in amateur sports may be somewhat more common than previously believed, the suspicious statistical trend that he identifies (heavy favorites win yet fail to cover the spread more often than expected) is unlikely to arise primarily from widespread corruption.
I base my [...]

Posted in Analysis (Data), Betting, Economics | Also tagged , , , , , ,

Widespread Corruption in Sports Gambling: Fact or Fiction?

Written by Rick Borghesi on August 20, 2007 — 2 Comments

Justin Wolfers has captured the attention of many with his now infamous paper (PDF) in which he proposes that college athletes shave points far more frequently than previously believed. He deserves a great deal of credit for the originality of his methods, his well-thought-out and diplomatic responses to criticism, and provoking an incredibly interesting debate.
There [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Economics | Also tagged , , , , , ,

Meet Richard Borghesi.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 19, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Rick Borghesi – Finance (Texas State University at San Marcos) – Texas, U.S.A.
Read his blog posts on Midas Oracle

Posted in People | Also tagged , , ,

Price Biases in a Prediction Market: NFL Contracts on Tradesports

Written by Rick Borghesi on August 19, 2007 — Leave a Comment

When researchers debate the efficiency of stock markets, one complication is that the true value (as opposed to the price) of a security is almost never revealed with certainty. For example, perhaps my model predicts that IBM shares are worth $110. If I observe that shares are actually trading at $100, I don’t know whether [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Trading | Also tagged , , ,

The NFL’s Home Underdog Bias: Timing and Weather

Written by Rick Borghesi on August 17, 2007 — 1 Comment

I have been studying the underdog (reverse favorite-longshot) bias and find that the timing of the phenomenon is potentially interesting. The two papers that I’ve published on this topic are:

The Late Season Bias: Explaining the NFL’s Home Underdog Effect (PDF file) and;
The Home Team Weather Advantage and Biases in the NFL Betting Market (PDF file).

Although [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Betting, Economics, Finance, Psychology | Also tagged , ,

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