The “Prediction Markets–New Empirical Findings” session, organized by Eric Zitzewitz, of Stanford University Dartmouth College, is slated to include:

• BO COWGILL, Google, JUSTIN WOLFERS, University of Pennsylvania, and ERIC ZITZEWITZ, Stanford University–Prediction Markets Inside the Firm: Evidence From Google
• FORREST NELSON and PHILIP POLGREEN, University of Iowa–Predicting Flu: Prediction Markets vs. Biostatistical Models
• PAUL TETLOCK, University of Texas-Austin–Does Liquidity Affect Securities Market Efficiency?
• RICARD GIL, University of California-Santa Cruz, and STEVEN LEVITT, University of Chicago–Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup

In addition to Zitzewitz and Wolfers, paper discussants include CHARLES PLOTT, Caltech, and ROBIN HANSON, George Mason University.

Sounds like quite the party. I predict that the good times will roll.

The quality of presenters is excellent and the workshop has succeeded in attracting high level contributions. The program and complete list of papers to be presented are available here, while directly related to prediction markets papers are:

• Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? by Bob Erikson, Columbia University and Chris Wlezien, Temple University
• Optimal Price Setting in Fixed-Odds Betting Markets Under Information by Raphael Markellos and Vasiliki A. Makropoulou, Athens University of Economics and Business
• Hitting Home Runs and the Art of Corporate Valuation: Do Managers or the Prediction Market Make Better Predictions? by Orly Sade, New York University and Hebrew University
• Prediction Markets as a Tool for Management of Political Risk by Ole Jakob Bergfjord, Norwegian School of Economics
• Public Signal Bias and Prediction Market Accuracy by Tom Gruca and Joyce E. Berg, University of Iowa
• Ignorance Prior Bias in Prediction Markets by Lionel Page, University of Westminster
• An Analysis of Tradesports’ 2005-06 National Football League Prediction Market by Feng Zhou and Philip O’Connor, University of Waikato
• Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup by Steve Levitt, University of Chicago and Ricard Gil, University of California at Santa Cruz
• Price Formation in Sports Prediction Markets: A Cross-Cultural Study by Stefan Luckner, University of Karlsruhe
• Socially Embedded Prediction Markets by Yiling Chen and David M. Pennock, Yahoo! Research
• Manipulators Increase Information Market Accuracy by Robin Hanson, George Mason University and Ryan Oprea, University of California, Santa Cruz
• Is There a Favorite-Longshot Bias in Election Prediction Markets? by Justin Wolfers, University of Pennsylvania, Eric Zitzewitz, Stanford University and Andrew Leigh, Australian National University
• Using Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq War by Eric Zitzewitz, Stanford University and Justin Wolfers, University of Pennsylvania

The exponential pattern of growth recorded in my literature review of the field remains consistent, at least.

Cross-posted from gtziralis.com.

Gambling: Design and Implementation 1
- “An Examination of the Determinants of Biased Behaviour in a Market for State Contingent Claims” Professor Johnnie Johnson, Southampton University Professor Alistair Bruce, University of Nottingham Jiejun Yu, University of Birmingham
- “Non-Expected Utility Models and Heterogeneity in Risk Attitudes: Towards an Explanation of Gambling Outcomes for Individuals and Markets” Professor David Peel, Lancaster University
- “Evidence of a Weekend Effect in a Market for State Contingent Claims” Professor Johnnie Johnson, Southampton University Dr. Ming-Chien Sung, Southampton University
Gambling: Design and Implementation 2
- “An Examination of the Economic Behavior In Buying Lottery Tickets” Professor Drew B. Winters, Texas Tech University
- “Why Score Probability Forecasts Categorically? Empirical Evidence of Increased Betting” Professor David Johnstone, University of Sydney Professor David Grant, University of Sydney
“Optimal Betting Strategies for Simultaneous Games” Professor Andrew Grant, University of Sydney
Gambling: Design and Implementation 3
- “Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?” Professor Bob Erikson, Columbia University
- “Under Information Uncertainty” Professor Raphael Markellos, Athens University of Economics and Business
- “Betting on Yourself … and Losing: The Economics of Weight Loss Bets” Professor John Lynham, University of California, Santa Barbara
Gambling and Public Policy 1
- “Gambling with Public Monies: Would a Prediction Market Improve the Performance of the SBIR Program?” Professor Albert N. Link, University of North Carolina at Greensboro Professor John T. Scott, Dartmouth College
- “The Lure of Gambling: Wellspring of Revenue or a Faustian Bargain” Professor Richard McGowan, Boston College
- “Competition and Monopoly in the Gambling: Market-A Theoretical Approach” Professor Herbert Walther, Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration
Gambling and Public Policy 2
- “Different Country, Different Millennium, Different Technology. Same Subsidy. Same Result?” Professor Ramon DeGennaro, University of Tennessee
- “What Does a Concept Attract? The Case of Gaming in Macau” Professor Raymond So, Chinese University of Hong Kong
- “An Economic Analysis of Problem Gambling, The Gambler’s Fallacy, and the Taxation of Gambling” Professor John Pierson, University of Kent
Gambling and Public Policy 3
- “Is Casino Gaming a Productive Sector? A Conceptual and Cross-Jurisdiction Analysis” Professor Ricardo Siu, University of Macau
- “Productivity Measurement in Gambling: Plant-level Evidence from the United Kingdom” Professor David Paton, University of Nottingham Professor Donald Siegel, University of California at Riverside Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams, Nottingham Trent University
- “The Impact of Casino Gambling on Housing Markets: A Hedonic Approach” Professor Mike Wenz, Winona State University
Casinos and Economic Growth
- “The Casino Effect: Do Casinos Spur Growth and Which Communities Benefit?” Professor Chad D. Cotti, University of South Carolina
- “The Effect of Legalized Gambling on State Tax Revenue” Professor Douglas Walker, Georgia College
- “Spatial Characteristics of Gambling Expansion – An Analysis of Cross Border Effects” Professor Shannon Neibergs, Washington State University
Horse Racing
- “Inferring Risk Preferences Using Synthetic Win Bets in Horse Betting ‘Exotic’ Markets” Professor Philip O’Connor, University of Waikato
- “The Parimutuel Kelly Probability Scoring Rule” Professor David Johnstone, University of Sydney
- “Efficiency and Arbitrage Across Parimutuel Pools” Professor Marshall Gramm, Rhodes College
Prediction Markets and Public Policy 1
- “Hitting Home Runs and the Art of Corporate Valuation: Do Managers or the Prediction Market Make Better Predictions?” Professor Orly Sade, New York University and Hebrew University
- “Spread Betting as a Self-Enforcing Implicit Cartel” Professor Schnytzer, Adi, Bar Ilan University Professor Avichai Snir, Bar Ilan University
- “Prediction Markets as a Tool for Management of Political Risk” Professor Ole Jakob Bergfjord, Norwegian School of Economics
Prediction Markets and Public Policy 2
- “The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications” Professor Alexander Koch, Royal Holloway College-University of London
- “Public Signal Bias and Prediction Market Accuracy” Professor Tom Gruca, University of Iowa
- “Ignorance Prior Bias in Prediction Markets” Professor Lionel Page, University of Westminster
Sports Betting 1
- “Ambiguity, Rules, and Asset Prices: The College Football Wagering Market” Professor Ron Mau, Western Carolina University
- “Does Sportsbook.com Set Pointspreads to Maximize Profits? Tests of the Levitt Model of Sportsbook Behavior” Professor Rodney J. Paul, St. Bonaventure University Andrew Weinbach
- “Market Efficiency and Internet Betting: Evidence from European Football” Professor Bruno Deschamps, University of Bath
Sports Betting 2
- “The Economics of the Setting of Bookmakers’ Odds” Professor John Pierson, University of Kent
- “An Analysis of Tradesports’ 2005-06 National Football League Prediction Market” Professor Feng Zhou, University of Waikato TBA Professor William H. Dare, Oklahoma State University
Sports Betting 3
- “Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup” Professor Steve Levitt, University of Chicago Professor Ricard Gil, University of California at Santa Cruz
- “The Impact of Sentiment on Point Spreads in the College Football Wagering Market” Professor Greg Durham, Montana State University TBA Professor Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross
Favorite-Longshot Bias
- “An Alternative Explanation of the Favorite–Longshot Bias” Professor Stefan Winter, Ruhr-Universität Bochum
- “The Link between Information and the Favorite-Longshot Bias in Pari-mutuel Wagering Markets” Professor Andy Weinbach, Coastal Carolina University
- “Anyone for Tennis (Betting)?” Professor Ian McHale, Salford University
Gambling and Prediction Markets: Experimental Methods
- “Time-inconsistent Risk Preferences in a Laboratory Experiment” Professor Jeremy Ko, Penn State
- “The Effect of Prior Beliefs and Outcomes on Information Processing in an Investment Experiment” Professor Jeremy Ko, Penn State
- “Forecasting Volume of Transactions in a Betting Market: An Experiment” Professor Loreto Llorente, Universidad Pública de Navarra
Gambling and Prediction Markets: Cross Cultural and Sociological Perspectives
- “Price Formation in Sports Prediction Markets: A Cross-Cultural Study” Professor Stefan Luckner, University of Karlsruhe
- “Socially Embedded Prediction Markets” Dr. Yiling Chen, Yahoo! Research
- “Do More Opportunities Lead to More Gamblers? Explaining the Growth in Gambling in the U.S. from a Cultural Perspective” Professor Andrew Economopoulos, Ursinus College
Plenary Session
- “Manipulators Increase Information Market Accuracy” Professor Robin Hanson, George Mason University
- “Is There a Favorite-Longshot Bias in Election Prediction Markets?” Professor Justin Wolfers, University of Pennsylvania
- “Using Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq War” Professor Eric Zitzewitz, Stanford University

Organizers: Donald Siegel, David Paton, Leighton Vaughan-Williams and William Ziemba

Very impressive.

Plenty of papers that I will read and excerpt ASAP.

Feel free to publish a review of a paper on Midas Oracle, if you wish.

Psstt… Don Imus was born in Riverside, California.