Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Rex Grossman

The methodology of prediction market event study — Multiple Causes Edition — REDUX

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 14, 2007 — 1 Comment

Keith Jacks Gamble on Michael Abramowicz’s Gamble on Gambling on Keith Jacks Gamble’s Super Bowl Analysis Highlights:
I agree that the simultaneity problem and the anticipation problem are confounding factors in assessing a player’s contribution to his team’s chance of winning. I’d like to say more on these issues.
(1) The Simultaneity Problem. Certainly, football is a [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta) | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Super Bowl Analysis Highlights

Written by Keith Jacks Gamble on February 9, 2007 — 31 Comments

The Colts entered the game with a 68% chance of winning.
The Bears winning the coin toss made them 0.5% more likely to win.
Devin Hester’s kick return for a touchdown made the Bears 10.25% more likely to win.
Thomas Jones’ 52 yard run to the Colts’ 5 yard line had the biggest impact of any offensive play. [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , ,

An Analysis of the 2007 Superbowl Using Price Changes on TradeSports

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 9, 2007 — 3 Comments

An Analysis of the Superbowl Using Price Changes on an Online Prediction Exchange – (TradeSports) – (PDF) – by Keith Jacks Gamble – 2007-02-08
ABSTRACT: I analyze Superbowl XLI by matching price changes for a futures contract on the winner to play-by-play data. The price change following a play measures the impact of that play [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , ,

Some interesting historical data on the Superbowl

Written by Caveat Bettor on February 2, 2007 — Leave a Comment

From Allen St. John of the WSJ (subscription required):
Over the last 22 Super Bowls, 18 — 86% of them — were won by the team that came into the game after allowing fewer regular-season points. (In the 2004-05 regular season, the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles each allowed 260 points.) Not since the [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Search

Post Categories