Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Republican U.S.

An automated market maker subisdizes Robin Hanson’s presidential decision-aid markets on Intrade

Peter McCluskey:

Automated Market Maker for certain Intrade contracts
I have implemented subsidies to encourage trading of some conditional prediction market contracts that may provide useful information about the consequences of the 2008 presidential election, via a simple automated market maker (using an algorithm described near the end of http://hanson.gmu.edu/ifextropy.html). The subsidized market maker ought to provide [...]

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