Tag Archives: Republican President

A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”

Posted on July 6, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Other than the ISDA (which is an association of operators who do not trade on regulated derivative exchanges), HedgeStreet (a non-intermediated DCM) was the first representative of the regulated derivative exchange community to submit a comment to the CFTC. — … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Regulations | Tagged CFTC, CME Group, Democratic president, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, first representative, HedgeStreet, Jason Ruspini, laws, oil industry, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Regulations, Republican President, Vernon Smith | 1 Comment

Their method can show how speculators expect a Republican president to effect any outcome X, but it suffers from three key limitations…

Posted on May 31, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson on the virtue of “decision markets”, pinching Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz’s noses.

Posted in Analysis (Meta) | Tagged Eric Zitzewitz, Justin Wolfers, prediction markets, Republican President, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

France: a Republican President is looming.

Posted on February 14, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The Woman: Segolene Royal (Socialist): 41% The Man: Nicolas Sarokozy (Republican): 54% Technical Note: BetFair probabilities are not accessible thru the Web interface (the prediction market sub-window freezes before giving the data), so I went to BetFair Lite and took … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged France, French political elections, Mike Smithson, Niagara falls, Nicolas Sarokozy, presidential candidate, Republican President, Secretary of Police, Socialist candidate, Web interface | Leave a comment

Who will be the next French president? – REDUX

Posted on January 30, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

BetFair: – Nicolas Sarkozy (the man – Republican): 45.9% –> 46.3% –> 49.5% – Segolene Royal (the woman – Socialist): 54.1% –> 47.6% –> 47.2% That superficial woman [*] has made yet another series of gaffes [**] (as I predicted … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged China, France, free-market candidate, Nicolas Sarkozy, President, Republican President | 5 Comments

Partisan impacts on the economy: Evidence from prediction markets and close elections – by Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz – REDUX

Posted on November 4, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

The breaking news is that Professor Justin Wolfers (of the Wharton business school in Philadelphia) has responded to my unforeseeable attack and to the subsequent Mike Linksvayer’s comment. A quick response to Chris: Let me clarify what I think the … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Bush, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers, Mike Linksvayer, oil prices, Philadelphia, prediction markets, Professor, Reagan, Republican President | Leave a comment