Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Randall S. Kroszner

BetFair accurately predicted the direction of the interest rate change, but was too shy in its prediction of the amplitude of the interest rate change.

BetFair predicted: -0,25
The Fed decided: -0.50
That’s for the absolute accuracy. Now, what counts is the relative accuracy —the comparison between the prediction made by BetFair and the predictions made by the financial markets experts. I see that the rate cut of 50bp has come up as a big surprise to the Wall [...]

BetFair predicts: US Federal Funds Rate = 5%

What will be the change in US Federal Funds Rate at this month’s scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting?
FOMC – September FOMC
Current Rate 5.25% .
- 0.25

UPDATE: BetFair accurately predicted the direction of the interest rate change, but was too shy in its prediction of the amplitude of the interest rate change.
BetFair predicted: -0,25
The [...]

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