Tag Archives: Rajiv Sethi

Prediction markets are indeed worth studying seriously not only because they are complex and interesting mechanisms for information aggregation, but also because the simplicity of the contracts traded can allow strong inferences to be made about the behavior of market participants. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 14, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi, The Return. – From Order Books to Belief Distributions.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, odds, prediction markets, probabilities, Rajiv Sethi | Leave a comment

Prediction market stability makes prices informative, while prediction market instability generates liquidity. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Andrew Gelman finds Rajiv Sethi’s remarks interesting: Markets are impressive mechanisms for information aggregation but they’re not magic. The information has to come from somewhere, and markets are inherently always living in the phase transition between stability and instability. (It … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, information, instability, InTrade, liquidity, Nate Silver, odds, prediction markets, prices, probabilities, Rajiv Sethi, stability | Leave a comment

Rajiv Sethi responds to Jason Ruspini. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 9, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi: I don’t see a huge problem with what Nate did either (especially since he added the caveat that he disagreed with some of the imputed beliefs). My point was just that there a lot more interesting information in … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Nate Silver, odds, prediction markets, probabilities, Rajiv Sethi | 2 Comments

On the Interpretation of Prediction Market Data – REDUX — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 8, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Jason Ruspini: If you have varying account sizes, you know right away the price isn’t an evenly weighted average of beliefs, but I don’t see a huge problem with what Nate Silver wrote given his purposes. He just said they … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Nate Silver, odds, prediction markets, probabilities, Rajiv Sethi | Leave a comment

On the Interpretation of Prediction Market Data – [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 6, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Nate Silver, odds, prediction markets, probabilities, Rajiv Sethi | 3 Comments