Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: prediction tools

General Electric’s internal betting exchange: The Imagination Market

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 17, 2007 — Leave a Comment

The imagination market – by Christina Ann LaComb, Janet Arlie Barnett and Qimei Pan – 2007-03-10
Information markets [= prediction markets] are typically used as prediction tools, aggregating opinions about the likelihood of future events, or as preference indicators, identifying participants’ product preferences. However, the basic information market concept is more widely applicable. In our experiment, [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Cases, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , , , ,

Debunking HSX Alex Costakis’ conspiracy theory

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 24, 2007 — 5 Comments

#1. There’s a story covering Inkling Markets and (not extensively) the corporate prediction markets in the Chicago Tribune. Here’s an interesting excerpt:
In the real world, the reason people use markets is to make money. If an outcome is accurately predicted, it is profitable. In virtual markets, “play money is not a bad predictor, but economists [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry) | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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