Tag Archives: prediction market consultant

What the prediction market experts said on Predictify

Posted on March 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Freakonomics: – Predictify may be a fine “for dummies” prediction game, but it certainly isn’t prediction “market”. It’s rather more like parimutuel betting. The distinction is important because prediction markets reward people not just for being right, but for … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Predictify sparks a prediction market controversy at Freakonomics.

Posted on October 27, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

“Smack Fogarty”: Jed and EJSS, a prediction market consultant, and the CEO of a struggling prediction market company, make valid points, but WHO CARES? The general public certainly doesn’t. You can continue to quibble all you want and ride the … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Consulting, Ethics, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Where is it that the prediction markets can make a macro difference, mister Robin Hanson?

Posted on September 26, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Prediction market consultant Robin Hanson wants to be paid according to outputs instead of inputs. Smart blog post. However, I will say this, if I may. I think it should be up to the consultant to tell the client where … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Consulting | Tagged , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Google’s Patri Friedman writes a dubious blog post on prediction markets.

Posted on August 14, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

#1. Patri Friedman is a Google employee who is part of their prediction market team, headed by Bo Cowgill. #2. Patri Friedman wrote yesterday a blog post on Overcoming Bias under the title, Dangers of political betting markets. [“Dangers”?? I’m … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Consulting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

How the Hollywood Stock Exchange and the other betting exchanges encourage event derivative traders to continually check back and trade further

Posted on July 10, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Prediction market consultant Jed Christiansen: [...] The Hollywood Stock Exchange has gone to the other side of the spectrum. They stake each trader with $2,000,000. A standard MovieStock is priced between $20 and $200, with default purchase options of 1000 … Continue reading →

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Did you ever witness a great leadership moment?

Posted on April 29, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

British prediction market consultant Jed Christiansen at LinkedIn: Absolutely. In the [US] Navy, I had an experience where a bunch of people collectively screwed up, and our boat had a multi-million-dollar accident. It was a career-ending experience for a number … Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

User Interface & Target Audience: BetFair, TradeSports-InTrade, MatchBook, etc.

Posted on April 27, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock comes to the rescue of British prediction market consultant Jed Christiansen. Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock comments: I think Jed Christiansen is correct to a large degree. Betfair speaks the punter’s (gambler’s) language. TradeSports speaks … Continue reading →

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Bookmark links on prediction markets with FireFox + Delicious

Posted on April 6, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

#1. Delete the old Delicious add-on. In FireFox, go to “Tools”, “Add-ons”, select “Delicious” and click on “Uninstall”. #2. Install the new Delicious add-on. – Please, do it, mister Jason Ruspini. I sadly saw that you abandoned your Delicious bookmarks. … Continue reading →

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Inkling Markets goes local. + Inkling Markets got manipulated. + Inkling Markets cutting down prediction market consultants.

Posted on March 15, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

#1. After the vertical prediction exchanges (betting exchanges), here come the local prediction exchanges. Makes sense. Chicago.InklingMarkets.com (I wonder who is behind this Chicago sub-exchange.) Addendum: The Chicago Sun-Times manages chicago.inklingmarkets.com. — #2. Adam Siegel’s admission in the Sun Times: … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

CME Economic Derivatives – Beating Wall Street Economists – Bloomberg TV interviews Justin Wolfers.

Posted on March 9, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Beating Wall Street Economists – Bloomberg TV – AVI file – 30 Mega “Bs” (no idea whether it’s “bits” or “bytes” ). Right-click the link and download it. – The link has been corrected, FYI. It works fine now. – … Continue reading →

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