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Interestingly, the results are very different with “swine flu predictions”. Predictify is above HubDub in both cases, you’ll notice.

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External Links: – Google Trends – Google Insights for Search

Previously: Swine Flu Prediction Markets

$100,000 are at stake.

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Predictify (a prediction platform, not a prediction exchange) is partnering with Rock The Vote.

As I understand it (BEWARE: the Press release is not that clear about where the money comes from), Rock The Vote (a 501c, I suppose) forks over $100.000, which Predictify uses as a prize pool to be handed out between the winners of a 2008 US election forecasting game.

I don’t get what Rock The Vote gets out of this deal, but that’s their problem. Rock The Vote gets the free publicity.

I see it as a good idea, and I think that our prediction exchanges should be seeking out deals such as that one with non-profit organizations… or commercial sponsors. It would attract more traders to our prediction markets.

Predictify is unveiling a two-way interaction between their prediction platform and the blogs out there.

1. FROM THE BLOGS TO PREDICTIFY: Number one, there is now a customized prediction widget that bloggers can embed in their blog posts so that their readers can vote within each blog post —without leaving the blog.
2. FROM PREDICTIFY TO THE BLOGS: Number two, there is now a trackback widget that bloggers can embed in their blog posts so that the blog readers can click and be connected to relevant questions on Predictify, based on the content in that particular post. As soon as one of the blog readers clicks a highlighted question, that question will have (on the Predicitif webpage) a trackback to the blog post —theoretically pulling traffic from Predictify to that blog. The first problem with this second feature is that only the most popular trackback will be published on the particular Predictify webpage, as I understand it. I don’t see how bloggers could be interested if there is no guarantee that their trackback will actually appear. The second problem is that we don’t know whether Predictify abides by the “do follow” policy, which is a way for a website to injects Google PageRank juice to the website it links to. (The opposite policy is called “no follow”.) Only the “do follow” approach would get bloggers interested in that scheme. Predictify should clarify that.
3. UPDATE: All the trackbacks will appear. They will be sorted by popularity. And, yes, Predictify has a “do follow” policy.

#2: Social Networking

I’m told that Predictify will soon unveil a FaceBook application. We will see whether it’s Predictify working on FaceBook or Predictify woking with FaceBook. See the difference? (YooPick works on FaceBook, not with FaceBook.)

Why don’t you do it too?

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I told the CFTC that inputs from external, vertical experts are important.

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Video

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Predictify is not a prediction exchange. We think prediction markets are superior to polls and surveys, don’t we?

With Predictify, the mechanism delivering the collective verdict is simplistic: it’s a poll —with possibility to get down to each individual answer.

Their conversation is very interesting, nevertheless —in great part due to Robert Scoble’s intense curiosity.

Technically, the video is awesome and plays well —even with my old computer and slow DSL line. Kudos to the Fast Company techies.

UPDATE: I don’t like that their video starts off automatically, though. With YouTube, we decide to play the video —it is not imposed on us.

UPDATE: Alas, their embedded video does not go into the blog feed.

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UPDATE: I e-mailed my remarks to Robert Scoble, and he’s asked to his techie to look into the issues.

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UPDATE: I see that the video does not start on its own, now. They managed to correct that. Rest the fact that their videos don’t go into feeds.

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Or maybe the averaged (or cumulative) usage for all of May?

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