Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Porter

Jason Ruspini will answer SOME of these CFTC questions. — 12 days left, Jason.

CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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V. Issues for Comment
A. Request for Comment
The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately underlie Commission-regulated transactions, and the appropriate regulatory treatment of event contracts. The Commission encourages comments on the specific questions posed, [...]

COMMENTS TO THE CFTC: What to expect from Tom W. Bell and Jason Ruspini

For those who are just surfacing from an Afghan cave: Tom W. Bell is a law professor at Chapman University (in California) and Jason Ruspini is a Wall Street professional (in New York).
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It seems that both will, independently of each other, write to the CFTC about the legalization of the “event markets” (here are the [...]

The CFTC is going to close the comments in 12 days. We have 12 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).

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THE MIDAS ORACLE TAKES:
- CALL TO ACTION: Let’s fight so that the CFTC allows the FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”.
- In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are on the wrong side of the issue.
- COMMENTS TO THE CFTC: What to expect from Tom W. Bell [...]

The CFTC is going to close the comments in 13 days. We have 13 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).

-
PREVIOUSLY:
- CALL TO ACTION: Let’s fight so that the CFTC allows the FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”.
- In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are on the wrong side of the issue.
-
BACKGROUND INFO:
- CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts… notably how [...]

The CFTC is going to close the comments in 14 days. We have 14 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).

-
PREVIOUSLY:
- CALL TO ACTION: Let’s fight so that the CFTC allows the FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”.
- In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are on the wrong side of the issue.
-
BACKGROUND INFO:
- CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts… notably how [...]

CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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SUMMARY:
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets. \1\ For ease of reference and to avoid classification issues, these [...]

The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize real-money prediction markets in the United States of America

The Promise of Prediction Markets – by Kenneth J. Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Robert Litan, Paul Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Marco Ottaviani, Thomas C. Schelling, Robert J. Shiller, Vernon L. Smith, Erik Snowberg, Cass R. Sunstein, Paul C. Tetlock, Philip E. Tetlock, [...]

The best research papers on prediction markets

As seen by Andreas Graefe…
IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
Research Papers
Basics
Several studies explain the concept of prediction markets and provide useful summaries of the method, e.g.
- Spann, M. & Skiera, B. (2003). Internet-based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting, Management Science, 49, 1310-1326. [Full text]
- Wolfers, J. & Zitzewitz, E. (2006). Prediction Markets in [...]

WEB EXCLUSIVE: What Vernon Smith told the CFTC about the social utility of the event derivative markets —the so-called “prediction markets”

Professor Vernon Smith (2002 Nobel Laureate, Economics) —PDF file:
1. On oversight: I suggest that initially this function be entirely limited to a monitoring and data archive function. Such information should be available for experimental, econometric, finance and other research scholars to study. If new regulatory rules governing rights to take action (“property rights”) are needed [...]

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