Tag Archives: poor forecasting tool
Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they call our prediction market luminaries (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, etc.)… “naive”.
Via Adam Siegel…
…of Inkling Markets fame….
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Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? – (draft: PDF file) – by Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien – 2008-05-02
Abstract
Election markets have been praised for their ability to forecast election outcomes, and to forecast better than trial-heat polls. This paper challenges that optimistic assessment of election [...]
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice)
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Also tagged accuracy, Adam, Adam Siegel, Bob Erikson, Christopher Wlezien, event deivative markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Iowa, Iowa Electronic Markets, Justin Wolfers, Politics, polls, prediction markets, relative accuracy, Robert S. Erikson, Robin Hanson, Trader
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