Tag Archives: poor forecasting tool

Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they call our prediction market luminaries (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, etc.)… “naive”.

Posted on June 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Via Adam Siegel… …of Inkling Markets fame…. – Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? – (draft: PDF file) – by Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien – 2008-05-02 Abstract Election markets have been praised for their … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, Adam, Adam Siegel, Bob Erikson, Christopher Wlezien, event deivative markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Iowa, Iowa Electronic Markets, Justin Wolfers, Politics, polls, poor forecasting tool, prediction markets, relative accuracy, Robert S. Erikson, Robin Hanson, Trader | 3 Comments

Tag Archives: poor forecasting tool

Meta

Recent Posts