Midas Oracle .ORG » poll

US entrepreneurs pray and meditate more than non-entrepreneurs. — [SURVEY]

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 08:52:16 +0000

Most Americans believe that God has a plan for them.

Paul Hewitt on the usefulness of the prediction markets — [ANALYSIS]

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 19:55:49 +0000

I don’t think there is any question that the usefulness of prediction markets has been exaggerated. We don’t hear much from James Surowiecki anymore. So a few of those polled probably indicated that he doesn’t exaggerate the usefulness (at least not anymore). Justin Wolfers isn’t as well known as Robin Hanson in the prediction market arena. This probably accounts for the large size of the “Don’t Know” vote. This leaves the “Yes” category, which would be made up of Robin Hansonites, who believe the slightest possible improvement in predictive accuracy over other methods justifies a significant investment in prediction markets.

If the question had been asked in a prediction market instead of in a poll, such answers would have led us to believe that the market knows little about the subject, if anything at all. Of course it would have been difficult, if not impossible, to create a prediction market in which the “outcome” is an opinion!

Have Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki been exaggerating the usefulness of the prediction markets? — [SURVEY RESULT]

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 28 Jul 2011 16:45:57 +0000

Here’s the result of the Kauffman Foundation poll:

UPDATE: Here’s an example (among many) of the grave problems with prediction markets, which are unreported by the media.

PDF document.

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One hundred poll respondents lied to InTrade.

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 10:28:41 +0000

3. What would you likely use as an alternative if InTrade.com were no longer available?

I probably wouldnâ€™t use an alternative. –> 65%

It is a lie. They would use BetFair USA instead —or another service. Come on.

And Chris Masse of Midas Oracle is not a “symbiotic detractor”, John. Blame yourself for the occasional slamming in the world’s #1 prediction market blog. I am a fair guy. All the slams published here are deserved. Take it graciously —as the other ones do.

Intrade’s “Super Quick 8 Question Survey”

Mike Linksvayer — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 02:05:54 +0000

Intrade is promoting a “Super Quick 8 Question Survey” from their home page. [UPDATE: Results.] My answers:

Just like Greg Mankiw, the BetFair event derivative traders don’t like tax hikes.

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 12:22:29 +0000

A non-scientific poll among British event derivative traders:

PREVIOUSLY: BetFair impose new “Premium Charges”… Do BetFair gag the critics, too?

UPDATE: They announce a Q&A.

Please, take part in this survey. If you read this within your feed reader, maybe you will need to go to this post to take part in the poll.

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 13:09:54 +0000

Small Business = GOOD — Big Business = BAD

Chris F. Masse — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 10:33:07 +0000