Tag Archives: Political Party
2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: Prediction Markets for the 2008 US Electoral College
ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com).
By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen.
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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as [...]
2008 US Electoral Map Prediction
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US ELECTORAL MAP: Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College
ElectoralMarkets.com
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Via Read & Write Web
2008 Electoral Map (based on InTade) + 2008 Electoral Map (based on polls)
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UPDATE: Hal Finney
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See our PREDICTIONS page for more predictive data…
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Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com).
By Lance Fortnow, David [...]
Prediction markets on the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees – InTrade-TradeSports
InTrade-TradeSports:
IMPORTANT: Expiry of 2008 US Election Contracts
Tuesday, Oct 30, 2007
We would like to advise a change in expiry procedure for contracts in the following group:
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
We originally planned to merge the contracts listed in this group for the Republican and Democratic Party nominees with the contracts we have listed for each party [...]
Slate compares InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets and NewsFutures’ political prediction markets.
And it doesn’t look good for NewsFutures. While InTrade and IEM’s prices/probabilities are quite close, NewsFutures’ ones are out of whack, sometimes by a magnitude of ten points.
- Republican nominee
- Democratic nominee
- Next US President
- Political Party of the Next US President
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- Should Slate add FT Predict in the odds comparison table?
- Slate has output [...]
TradeSports-InTrade Expiry Rule on Assassination??
This is a follow-up on my last blog post, What if, God forbids, some mad man GUNNED DOWN World Bank’s Paul Wolfowitz??
I am asked by mister Steve Roman (who has a vested interest in the subject of political assassination) to substantiate my claim that “TradeSports-Intrade is careful to exclude assassination as possible expiry cause.”
I have [...]
TradeSports-InTrade prediction markets on Bush approval ratings
Donald Luskin notes that the text of this contract has a glitch.
Probably, a TradeSports employee using a template has forgotten to delete an old text pertaining to US election prediction markets, while filling the “Rules” tab. (The webpage for the text of the contract is OK, though.)
What’s interesting: This contract institutes a blog (Real Clear [...]
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