Tag Archives: Political Party

2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: Prediction Markets for the 2008 US Electoral College

ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com). By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen. – - #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a … Continue reading

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2008 US Electoral Map Prediction

- US ELECTORAL MAP: Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College ElectoralMarkets.com – - Via Read & Write Web 2008 Electoral Map (based on InTade) + 2008 Electoral Map (based on polls) – UPDATE: Hal Finney – See our PREDICTIONS … Continue reading

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Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama

- Noam Scheiber: 1.) Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas. 2.) Hillary wins Ohio; Obama wins Texas. 3.) Obama wins both Ohio and Texas. I put in bold the most likely scenario, according to InTrade’s prediction markets. – The Democrats … Continue reading

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Counting the Democratic delegates, and courting the Democratic super-delegates (a kind of aristocracy within the so-called Democratic party).

- Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators … Continue reading

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BARACK OBAMA = NEXT US PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

LIKE HIM OR NOT, THIS IS THE 44th US PRESIDENT, ACCORDING TO THE PREDICTION MARKETS. GET USED TO IT. – - #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events … Continue reading

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Prediction markets on the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees – InTrade-TradeSports

InTrade-TradeSports: IMPORTANT: Expiry of 2008 US Election Contracts Tuesday, Oct 30, 2007 We would like to advise a change in expiry procedure for contracts in the following group: 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) We originally planned to merge the contracts … Continue reading

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Slate compares InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets and NewsFutures’ political prediction markets.

And it doesn’t look good for NewsFutures. While InTrade and IEM’s prices/probabilities are quite close, NewsFutures’ ones are out of whack, sometimes by a magnitude of ten points. – Republican nominee – Democratic nominee – Next US President – Political … Continue reading

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TradeSports-InTrade Expiry Rule on Assassination??

This is a follow-up on my last blog post, What if, God forbids, some mad man GUNNED DOWN World Bank’s Paul Wolfowitz?? I am asked by mister Steve Roman (who has a vested interest in the subject of political assassination) … Continue reading

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Winner of next UK General Election (Political Party)

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TradeSports-InTrade prediction markets on Bush approval ratings

Donald Luskin notes that the text of this contract has a glitch. Probably, a TradeSports employee using a template has forgotten to delete an old text pertaining to US election prediction markets, while filling the “Rules” tab. (The webpage for … Continue reading

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