Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Peyton Manning

Expect the big prediction exchanges to diversify into fantasy sports, soon.

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 16, 2007 — 1 Comment

World Sports Exchange (Antigua & Barbuda):
Welcome to Fantasy Sports Exchange
Fantasy Sports Exchange is a revolutionary new style of fantasy sports wagering. Gone are the days of waiting months to see your expertise payoff. Now you can create a team, join a contest, and watch your success in real time, with a payout at the end [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Betting, Gambling | Also tagged , , , , ,

The methodology of prediction market event study — Multiple Causes Edition — REDUX

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 14, 2007 — 1 Comment

Keith Jacks Gamble on Michael Abramowicz’s Gamble on Gambling on Keith Jacks Gamble’s Super Bowl Analysis Highlights:
I agree that the simultaneity problem and the anticipation problem are confounding factors in assessing a player’s contribution to his team’s chance of winning. I’d like to say more on these issues.
(1) The Simultaneity Problem. Certainly, football is a [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta) | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Super Bowl Analysis Highlights

Written by Keith Jacks Gamble on February 9, 2007 — 31 Comments

The Colts entered the game with a 68% chance of winning.
The Bears winning the coin toss made them 0.5% more likely to win.
Devin Hester’s kick return for a touchdown made the Bears 10.25% more likely to win.
Thomas Jones’ 52 yard run to the Colts’ 5 yard line had the biggest impact of any offensive play. [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , ,

Some interesting historical data on the Superbowl

Written by Caveat Bettor on February 2, 2007 — Leave a Comment

From Allen St. John of the WSJ (subscription required):
Over the last 22 Super Bowls, 18 — 86% of them — were won by the team that came into the game after allowing fewer regular-season points. (In the 2004-05 regular season, the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles each allowed 260 points.) Not since the [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Search

Post Categories