Tag Archives: Peyton Manning

Expect the big prediction exchanges to diversify into fantasy sports, soon.

Posted on November 16, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

World Sports Exchange (Antigua & Barbuda): Welcome to Fantasy Sports Exchange Fantasy Sports Exchange is a revolutionary new style of fantasy sports wagering. Gone are the days of waiting months to see your expertise payoff. Now you can create a … Continue reading →

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The methodology of prediction market event study — Multiple Causes Edition — REDUX

Posted on February 14, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Keith Jacks Gamble on Michael Abramowicz’s Gamble on Gambling on Keith Jacks Gamble’s Super Bowl Analysis Highlights: I agree that the simultaneity problem and the anticipation problem are confounding factors in assessing a player’s contribution to his team’s chance of … Continue reading →

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Super Bowl Analysis Highlights

Posted on February 9, 2007 by Keith Jacks Gamble

The Colts entered the game with a 68% chance of winning. The Bears winning the coin toss made them 0.5% more likely to win. Devin Hester’s kick return for a touchdown made the Bears 10.25% more likely to win. Thomas … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , | 31 Comments

Some interesting historical data on the Superbowl

Posted on February 2, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

From Allen St. John of the WSJ (subscription required): Over the last 22 Super Bowls, 18 — 86% of them — were won by the team that came into the game after allowing fewer regular-season points. (In the 2004-05 regular … Continue reading →

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