Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Paul Architzel

MicroSoft joins Yahoo! and Google in lobbying the CFTC for private event derivative markets.

Via David Pennock who has much more info. – MicroSoft’s short letter to the CFTC. – PDF file
MicroSoft simply says that it supports the lobbying of CIM (Yahoo! + Google) in favor of (enteprise and public) prediction markets —PDF file. So, you would ask, why doesn’t MicroSoft join CIM? I heard the rumor that MicroSoft [...]

Slate compares InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets and NewsFutures’ political prediction markets.

And it doesn’t look good for NewsFutures. While InTrade and IEM’s prices/probabilities are quite close, NewsFutures’ ones are out of whack, sometimes by a magnitude of ten points.
- Republican nominee
- Democratic nominee
- Next US President
- Political Party of the Next US President

- Should Slate add FT Predict in the odds comparison table?
- Slate has output [...]

Flora of North America (CFTC regulation again)

Tom Bell argues that the CFTC does not have authority over event and prediction markets. At the core of his argument is the definition of commodities subject to CFTC jurisdiction in the CEA: “all services, rights, and interests in which contracts for future delivery are presently or in the future dealt in.” Bell [...]

Credit Event Futures and other fauna

Let’s reorient ourselves towards the regulatory environment that potentially affects the evolution of prediction markets.
First, is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s planned Credit Event Future within the jurisdiction of the CFTC? The Chicago Board Options Exchange protests that it is not. CME’s initial defense reduces the issue to whether or not the option-like swap [...]

Carving a legal niche for prediction exchanges in the U.S.

David Pennock favors the Hahn–Tetlock economic purpose test, “in the current legal and political environment”.
Hahn and Tetlock argue that presidential betting would pass their economic purpose test, and that sports betting would not pass their test. However, one can argue that sports teams, local sports bars, and even city governments could use sports betting markets [...]

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