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Tag Archives: particular candidate
Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.
CNN: FOREMAN: I’ve got something I want you to take a look at. Look at this. It could be the price of a stock or a mutual fund. It isn’t. It’s the odds that a particular candidate, the red here … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers
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Tagged accuracy, CNN, crude oil, director of the Sports Book, Dublin, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forecasting (Science & Practice), FOREMAN, Hillary Clinton, historical prediction markets, InTrade, Iowa, Iowa Electronic Markets, Ireland, JOHN AVELLO, Johnny Avello, Kansas, Koleman Strumpf, Las Vegas, Madame Tussaud's Wax Museum, online markets, particular candidate, prediction markets, President, president of the United States, Professor, surprise, the New York Times, United States, University of Kansas, University of Kansas School of Business, upset, USD, Wall Street, Washington, Wisconsin, WYNN, WYNN HOTEL
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Decision markets that give the consequences of something
Here’s what Robin Hanson meant… when he wrote: [...] markets that give the consequences of electing any particular candidate. This: Let U = the unemployment rate, D = Democrats win, and R = Republicans win. An exchange rate between “Pays … Continue reading →
Google’s Patri Friedman writes a dubious blog post on prediction markets.
#1. Patri Friedman is a Google employee who is part of their prediction market team, headed by Bo Cowgill. #2. Patri Friedman wrote yesterday a blog post on Overcoming Bias under the title, Dangers of political betting markets. [“Dangers”?? I’m … Continue reading →