Tag Archives: particular candidate

Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.

CNN: FOREMAN: I’ve got something I want you to take a look at. Look at this. It could be the price of a stock or a mutual fund. It isn’t. It’s the odds that a particular candidate, the red here … Continue reading

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Decision markets that give the consequences of something

Here’s what Robin Hanson meant… when he wrote: [...] markets that give the consequences of electing any particular candidate. This: Let U = the unemployment rate, D = Democrats win, and R = Republicans win. An exchange rate between “Pays … Continue reading

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Google’s Patri Friedman writes a dubious blog post on prediction markets.

#1. Patri Friedman is a Google employee who is part of their prediction market team, headed by Bo Cowgill. #2. Patri Friedman wrote yesterday a blog post on Overcoming Bias under the title, Dangers of political betting markets. [“Dangers”?? I’m … Continue reading

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