Midas Oracle .ORG » Oregon

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

So, what has become Betcha’s Nick Jenkins?

Chris F. Masse — Sat, 06 Oct 2007 12:23:10 +0000

Nick Jenkins:

Last month, after fairly regular updates to this Nick Knacks blog, I pulled it altogether. My blogging was getting me into more trouble than any alleged gambling I was supposedly encouraging. I was thrown in jail on $50,000 bail for writing about a hypothetical drive through Oregon, and authorities in Louisiana are none too pleased about a certain word I used in a past entry.

The blog is officially back.

I figure I can’t get into much more trouble than I’m already in, so might as well blog about it.

NOTE TO THE MIDAS ORACLE READERS: My “content deleted” blog post from August 2007 had to do with Nick Jenkins’ legal problem.

Despite winning MSNBC’s own polls, and winning Fox News’ listener polls, Ron Paul has been blacked out.

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 16 May 2007 17:50:32 +0000

Mises blog:

Bill, Springfield, Oregon (Sent Tuesday, May 15, 2007 4:38 PM)
Well, since the article was so short in details, here’s some of facts about Ron Paul: He has never voted to raise taxes. He has never voted for an unbalanced budget. He has never voted for a federal restriction on gun ownership. He has never voted to raise congressional pay. He has never taken a government-paid junket. He has never voted to increase the power of the executive branch. He voted against the Patriot Act. He voted against regulating the Internet. He voted against the Iraq war. He does not participate in the lucrative congressional pension program. He returns a portion of his annual congressional office budget to the U.S. treasury every year. Ron Paul is a representative of Congress from Texas’s 14th district. He is currently seeking the Republican party nomination for president.

See the “Ron Paul 2008″ site for a video of Ron Paul’s answers in the Republican debate.

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HedgeStreet: The state of California (among other) is dysfunctional.

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 13 Nov 2006 16:59:31 +0000

From the November 07, 2006′s HedgeStreet e-mail newsletter:

DYSFUNCTIONAL STATES

How to tell which state has the most dysfunctional government? Count the number of ballot measures. If voters can’t trust elected representatives, they take matters in their own hands. The leaders: Arizona (19), California (13), Oregon (10), Colorado (14). One measure in Arizona requires farmers to increase the amount of living space given to pregnant pigs. California voters received a 191-page election guide, even though 30% of them don’t speak English, 30% cannot read at 4th-grade level, and 30% already work for the government. Viva California and God bless the United States of America!