Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: opinions

Enterprise prediction markets have *no* benefits for businesses.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 5, 2009 — 6 Comments

Paul Hewitt:
My review of the literature and case studies (that have been published) indicates that prediction markets have improved the accuracy of forecasts, but the improvements have not been great enough to encourage widespread (or even minimal) acceptance. Furthermore, these studies like to average their results over a number of markets, disguising the fact that [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

TOTAL DESTRUCTION

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 5, 2009 — 11 Comments

Paul Hewitt asses a research paper by the Iowa Electronic Markets scholars… and what’s left is just a little stack of ashes.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Also tagged , , , , , ,

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