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	<title>Midas Oracle .ORG &#187; Online self-publication</title>
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	<description>Prediction Markets, etc.</description>
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		<title>European Foresight Project Launches Prediction Market.</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/06/10/european-foresight-project-launches-prediction-market/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/06/10/european-foresight-project-launches-prediction-market/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Jun 2007 17:55:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Andreas Graefe</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All Guest Authors's Posts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchanges & Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasting (Science & Practice)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Delphi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Commission's Joint Research Centre]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Institute for Prospective Technological Studies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[internet   advertising]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[internet user]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[navigation tools]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[on television   advertising]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Online self-publication]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Search Engines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[www.techforx.org]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[In line with the European foresight project EPIS run by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European Commissionâ€™s Joint Research Centre, which aims at predicting long-term developments in the content industry, the non-commercial play-money prediction market TechForX has &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/06/10/european-foresight-project-launches-prediction-market/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In line with the European foresight project <a href="http://epis.jrc.es/homepage.html">EPIS</a> run by the <a href="http://www.jrc.es/">Institute for Prospective Technological Studies</a> of the <a href="http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/">European Commissionâ€™s Joint Research Centre, </a> which   aims at <strong>predicting long-term developments</strong> in the  content industry, the   non-commercial play-money prediction market <a href="http://www.techforx.org/">TechForX</a> has been launched parallel to  a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method">Delphi study</a>.</p>
<p>While in the Delphi  a small number of selected experts are asked to judge predefined theses, it is the goal of <a href="http://www.techforx.org/">TechForX</a> to enhance traditional foresight activities by <strong>involving a preferably broad public</strong>. Thus, <a href="http://www.techforx.org/">TechForX</a> invites every internet user to participate by revealing his / her opinion on a subset of the  <strong>same theses that are asked in the Delphi</strong>.</p>
<p>The results will be incorporated in EPIS to improve strategic decision-making of European policy makers. Furthermore, the findings  will be analyzed in my dissertation which aims at <strong>comparing the <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/18/discussion-about-applicability-of-prediction-markets-for-long-term-prediction/">applicability of prediction markets for long-term developments</a> to established approaches like the Delphi</strong>.</p>
<p>Your support for this research project by registering and participating at <a href="http://www.techforx.org/">www.techforx.org</a> is very much appreciated!</p>
<p>To get an impression on the discussed topics, here are some of the  theses   that are currently traded on <a href="http://www.techforx.org/">TechForX</a>:</p>
<ul>
<li>More money is spent on internet   advertising in search engines and navigation tools than on television   advertising.</li>
<li>On average, users spend more time   watching personalized TV on demand than fixed programs.</li>
<li>A value added tax (VAT) for   transactions within virtual worlds (like Second Life) is raised.</li>
<li>Online self-publication of books   (without involving publishing houses) is the predominant way of commercial   distribution, even for established authors.</li>
<li>Virtual visits to museums over the internet are more popular than physical visits.</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="http://www.techforx.org/mainPage/StoccerInterface/images/techforx_logo.jpg" alt="TechForX_Logo" longdesc="http://www.techforx.org" /></p>
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