Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: online prediction market

Not since 1928 has there been a US presidential election with neither a sitting president or vice president running.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 3, 2008 — Leave a Comment

CNBC Streaming Video: Trading The Election
The start of the biggest election in 80 years begins Thursday. Not since 1928 has there been an election with neither a sitting president or vice president running. The polls have the leading candidates in a statistical dead heat. But on Fast Money, we don’t follow polls. We follow money. [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Should the Hollywood Stock Exchange become a real-money betting exchange?

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 4, 2007 — 9 Comments

Via Max Keiser, Trader Daily ($$$):
Hollywood Ending – Trader Daily – October 4, 2007 – by Robert LaFranco
A decade ago, a Wall Street trader and an L.A. dealmaker united to remake the movie industry in the image of the markets. They had capital, ambition, securities-industry savvy and an American public captivated by money and celebrity. [...]

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With a prediction market, everyone brings a small piece of information to the table, and the consensus proves surprisingly accurate.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 25, 2007 — 5 Comments

The American: A Bettor World – Once apprenticed to a bookie, Justin Wolfers of Wharton now draws economic insight from the behavior of gamblers.
[...] Last year, for instance, the aggregate of small bettors who placed wagers on electoral results on TradeSports, a Web-based market, forecasted the outcome of every U.S. Senate race correctly. Companies like [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Economics, Explainers | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Inkling Markets + The Chicago Sun-Times + ABC7 San Francisco

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 17, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Chicago Sun-Times:
The Chicago Prediction Markets launched with a bang Thursday, according to figures compiled Friday by Inkling, the Chicago online prediction market company. In first-day trading, 32 people signed up, 69 trades were made and a dozen new markets were created by Sun-Times staff and readers. The hottest individual markets on Friday were 18 investing [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Software | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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