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Tag Archives: Olympic committee
Once again, resignation prediction markets failed to the task.
US Attorney General Alberto Gonzales resigns. More. (Good riddance, by the way.) Doug Mills / The New York Times — Once again, Chris Masse was right on the money: [...] Just like the Olympic City prediction markets, the resignation prediction … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities
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Tagged Alberto Gonzales, attorney general, Bush, Chris Masse, Doug Mills, Karl Rove, Olympic, Olympic committee, the New York Times, United States, White House
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4 Comments
Does this prediction market chart look predictive to you?
Karl Rove will resign from the White House. Emile Servan-Schreiber: Chris, how exactly do you define “predictiveâ€? If your criterion is “last trading price above 50%â€, that would betray a very limited understanding of the nature of both probability and … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities
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Tagged Chris Masse, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Jed Christiansen, Karl Rove, market-based technology, Olympic, Olympic committee, prediction markets, United States, White House
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2 Comments