Tag Archives: Olympic committee

Once again, resignation prediction markets failed to the task.

US Attorney General Alberto Gonzales resigns. More. (Good riddance, by the way.) Doug Mills / The New York Times — Once again, Chris Masse was right on the money: [...] Just like the Olympic City prediction markets, the resignation prediction … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Does this prediction market chart look predictive to you?

Karl Rove will resign from the White House. Emile Servan-Schreiber: Chris, how exactly do you define “predictive”? If your criterion is “last trading price above 50%”, that would betray a very limited understanding of the nature of both probability and … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments