Tag Archives: Olympic committee
Once again, resignation prediction markets failed to the task.
US Attorney General Alberto Gonzales resigns. More. (Good riddance, by the way.)
Doug Mills / The New York Times
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Once again, Chris Masse was right on the money:
[...] Just like the Olympic City prediction markets, the resignation prediction markets are rarely predictive because there aren’t any reliable advanced indicators to guide the traders. The Olympic committee is [...]
Does this prediction market chart look predictive to you?
Karl Rove will resign from the White House.
Emile Servan-Schreiber:
Chris, how exactly do you define “predictive”? If your criterion is “last trading price above 50%”, that would betray a very limited understanding of the nature of both probability and binary markets. That’s a debate you and I have had ever since the first days of chrisfmasse.com [...]
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities
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Also tagged Chris Masse, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Jed Christiansen, Karl Rove, market-based technology, Olympic, prediction markets, United States, White House
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