Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Obama

Unlike polls, prediction markets give incentives to think carefully.

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 14, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Via Wall Street investor and blogger Barry Ritholtz, the Wall Street Journal:
[...] Since the election season began, investors on Intrade have risked $4.6 million in trades on Sen. Clinton and $3.4 million on Sen. Obama. [...] Robin Hanson, an economics professor at Virginia’s George Mason University, says the predictions markets work much as other markets [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Also tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Defining Probability in Prediction Markets

Written by Panos Ipeirotis on January 13, 2008 — 6 Comments

The New Hampshire Democratic primary was one of the few(?) events in which prediction markets did not give an “accurate” forecast for the winner. In a typical “accurate” prediction, the candidate that has the contract with the highest price ends up winning the election.
This result, combined with an increasing interest/hype about the predictive accuracy of [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

How will the prediction markets respond?

Written by Niall O'Connor on January 8, 2008 — 2 Comments

Ireland’s largest bookmaker Paddy Power is already paying out on Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination for the race to the White House. They decided yesterday to pay out 50000 Euros to punters who had backed him at odds ranging from 4-9 to 4-1.
After his stunning victory last week in the Iowa caucuses, [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting | Also tagged , , , , , ,

Senator Obama’s statement that kindergartners should be given sex education is the first serious mistake of his campaign, and Republicans are quickly going to move in to take advantage of it.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 25, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Tony Blankley
—
Excerpt of the rest of the discussion:
MS. CLIFT: There are actually 51 Democrats, although Joe Lieberman generally votes with the Republicans –
MR. MCLAUGHLIN: What do you do with Lieberman?
MS. CLIFT: — and Tim Johnson is ill and hasn’t been voting.
MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Is he an Independent? Where do you put him?
MS. CLIFT: He calls himself [...]

Posted in Politics | Also tagged , , , ,

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