Tag Archives: Obama

Unlike polls, prediction markets give incentives to think carefully.

Posted on February 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Via Wall Street investor and blogger Barry Ritholtz, the Wall Street Journal: [...] Since the election season began, investors on Intrade have risked $4.6 million in trades on Sen. Clinton and $3.4 million on Sen. Obama. [...] Robin Hanson, an … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Defining Probability in Prediction Markets

Posted on January 13, 2008 by Panos Ipeirotis

The New Hampshire Democratic primary was one of the few(?) events in which prediction markets did not give an “accurate” forecast for the winner. In a typical “accurate” prediction, the candidate that has the contract with the highest price ends … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

How will the prediction markets respond?

Posted on January 8, 2008 by Niall O'Connor

Ireland’s largest bookmaker Paddy Power is already paying out on Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination for the race to the White House. They decided yesterday to pay out 50000 Euros to punters who had backed him at odds … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Senator Obama’s statement that kindergartners should be given sex education is the first serious mistake of his campaign, and Republicans are quickly going to move in to take advantage of it.

Posted on July 25, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Tony Blankley — Excerpt of the rest of the discussion: MS. CLIFT: There are actually 51 Democrats, although Joe Lieberman generally votes with the Republicans – MR. MCLAUGHLIN: What do you do with Lieberman? MS. CLIFT: — and Tim Johnson … Continue reading →

Posted in Politics | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment