More from Paul Hewitt:

I can hardly wait for the prediction market calibration proponents to claim that these were not market failures. On the contrary, these outcomes show, precisely, that prediction markets do, in fact, work.

Of course, they may be right. I doubt that I will live another 50 years or so to test the calibration accuracy of similar prediction markets. It is rather interesting that not one, but two, 50 – 1 longshots claimed the prize. There is no calibration accuracy in these types of markets, and there is no consistency across a variety of similar prediction markets (and there should be, if these types of prediction markets really do work).

The web traffic to Midas Oracle over the week-end shows a huge interest in Nobel predictions (still going on as I speak):

Previously: Nobel Prize for Economics 2009 Predictions

Both the bookmakers and the prection markets are utterly useless in trying to divine who will get the Nobel prize of economics.

Below is the 2009 prediction post-mortem:

1. Bookmakers

Ladbrokes’s probabilities (odds) for the 2009 Nobel prize in economics:

Eugene Fama 2/1
Paul Romer 4/1
Ernst Fehr 6/1
Kenneth R. French 6/1
William Nordhaus 6/1
Robert Barro 7/1
Matthew J Rabin 8/1
Jean Tirole 9/1
Martin Weitzman 9/1
Chris Pissarides 10/1
Dale T Mortensen 10/1
Xavier Sala-i-Martin 10/1
Avinash Dixit 14/1
Jagdish N. Bhagwati 14/1
Robert Schiller [sic] 14/1
William Baumol 16/1
Martin S. Feldstein 20/1
Christopher Sims 25/1
Lars P. Hansen 25/1
Nancy Stokey 25/1
Peter A Diamond 25/1
Thomas J. Sargent 25/1
Dale Jorgenson 33/1
Paul Milgrom 33/1
Oliver Hart 40/1
Bengt R Holmstrom 50/1
Elhanan Helpman 50/1
Ellinor Ostrom 50/1
Gene M Grossman 50/1
Karl-Goran Maler 50/1
Oliver Williamson 50/1
Robert B Wilson 50/1

2. Betting Pools

Here is the betting in the Nobel pool at Harvard:

Robert Barro -10%
John Taylor – 8%
Paul Milgrom – 8%
Jean Tirole – 6%
Oliver Williamson – 6%
Martin Weitzman – 6%
Eugene Fama – 5%
Richard Thaler – 5%
Lars Hansen – 4%
Paul Romer – 4%

3. Prediction Markets

InTrade:

Previously: Nobel Prize for Economics 2009 Predictions

1. Bookmakers

Ladbrokes’s probabilities (odds) for the 2009 Nobel prize in economics:

Eugene Fama 2/1
Paul Romer 4/1
Ernst Fehr 6/1
Kenneth R. French 6/1
William Nordhaus 6/1
Robert Barro 7/1
Matthew J Rabin 8/1
Jean Tirole 9/1
Martin Weitzman 9/1
Chris Pissarides 10/1
Dale T Mortensen 10/1
Xavier Sala-i-Martin 10/1
Avinash Dixit 14/1
Jagdish N. Bhagwati 14/1
Robert Schiller [sic] 14/1
William Baumol 16/1
Martin S. Feldstein 20/1
Christopher Sims 25/1
Lars P. Hansen 25/1
Nancy Stokey 25/1
Peter A Diamond 25/1
Thomas J. Sargent 25/1
Dale Jorgenson 33/1
Paul Milgrom 33/1
Oliver Hart 40/1
Bengt R Holmstrom 50/1
Elhanan Helpman 50/1
Ellinor Ostrom 50/1
Gene M Grossman 50/1
Karl-Goran Maler 50/1
Oliver Williamson 50/1
Robert B Wilson 50/1

2. Betting Pools

Here is the betting in the Nobel pool at Harvard:

Robert Barro -10%
John Taylor – 8%
Paul Milgrom – 8%
Jean Tirole – 6%
Oliver Williamson – 6%
Martin Weitzman – 6%
Eugene Fama – 5%
Richard Thaler – 5%
Lars Hansen – 4%
Paul Romer – 4%

3. Prediction Markets

2a. InTrade has just opened some Nobel prediction markets —see under “current events”.

2b. Inkling Markets – Which economist will receive the 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics (a.k.a. the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences)?

Previously: Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky.

Stay away from these markets where the intention is to divine the decision of a close, opaque group. It is impossible. No good information leaks out.

Previously: The market participants did not possess a sufficient level of information completeness to arrive at the correct prediction.

Previously: Who will get the 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky.

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UPDATE: The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 2009 to Elinor Ostrom “for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons” and Oliver E. Williamson “for his analysis of economic governance, especially the boundaries of the firm”.

2a. InTrade has just opened some Nobel prediction markets —see under “current events”.

2b. Inkling Markets – Which economist will receive the 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics (a.k.a. the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences)?

Previously: Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky.

Stay away from these markets where the intention is to divine the decision of a close, opaque group. It is impossible. No good information leaks out.

Previously: The market participants did not possess a sufficient level of information completeness to arrive at the correct prediction.

2. Bookmakers

Ladbrokes’s probabilities (odds) for the 2009 Nobel prize in economics:

Eugene Fama 2/1
Paul Romer 4/1
Ernst Fehr 6/1
Kenneth R. French 6/1
William Nordhaus 6/1
Robert Barro 7/1
Matthew J Rabin 8/1
Jean Tirole 9/1
Martin Weitzman 9/1
Chris Pissarides 10/1
Dale T Mortensen 10/1
Xavier Sala-i-Martin 10/1
Avinash Dixit 14/1
Jagdish N. Bhagwati 14/1
Robert Schiller [sic] 14/1
William Baumol 16/1
Martin S. Feldstein 20/1
Christopher Sims 25/1
Lars P. Hansen 25/1
Nancy Stokey 25/1
Peter A Diamond 25/1
Thomas J. Sargent 25/1
Dale Jorgenson 33/1
Paul Milgrom 33/1
Oliver Hart 40/1
Bengt R Holmstrom 50/1
Elhanan Helpman 50/1
Ellinor Ostrom 50/1
Gene M Grossman 50/1
Karl-Goran Maler 50/1
Oliver Williamson 50/1
Robert B Wilson 50/1

3. Betting Pools

Here is the betting in the Nobel pool at Harvard:

Robert Barro -10%
John Taylor – 8%
Paul Milgrom – 8%
Jean Tirole – 6%
Oliver Williamson – 6%
Martin Weitzman – 6%
Eugene Fama – 5%
Richard Thaler – 5%
Lars Hansen – 4%
Paul Romer – 4%

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UPDATE: The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 2009 to Elinor Ostrom “for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons” and Oliver E. Williamson “for his analysis of economic governance, especially the boundaries of the firm”.