Midas Oracle .ORG » Noam Danon http://www.midasoracle.org Prediction Markets, etc. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 17:20:04 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/29/prediction-markets-forrester/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/29/prediction-markets-forrester/#comments Wed, 29 Oct 2008 17:08:16 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7567 Continue reading →]]> Here are short excerpts of the Forrester report on enterprise prediction markets and companies that provide software for enterprise prediction markets.

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The Forrester executive summary:

The “wisdom of crowds” is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively predict future events — to generate collective intelligence. For enterprises, prediction markets bring unique value: They focus on the future, aggregate diverse information pools that can be applied to multiple decision-making domains, create streams of actionable data suitable for executive decision-making, and can often cut through corporate politics and pressures at lower cost than traditional forecasting methods. Market researchers will, however, need to have an active hand in the management of these mechanisms, ensuring strong management support, the right incentives for traders, and a focus on appropriate questions. When executed properly, the value to the enterprise is enormous; as a result, Forrester believes that prediction markets will ultimately find a permanent home in the market research toolbox.

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For information on hard-copy or electronic reprints, please contact the Client Resource Center at +1 866.367.7378, +1 617.617.5730, or resourcecenter –at– forrester –dot– com. We offer quantity discounts and special pricing for academic and nonprofit institutions.

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APPENDIX #1: Prediction Markets – DRM Review

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APPENDIX #2:

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Here is a list of companies that provide software for prediction markets:

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Inkling Markets – (MSR + AMM)

NewsFutures – (CDA + optional AMM + SR)

Xpree – (MSR + AMM)

Zocalo – (CDA + MSR + AMM) – (open-source)

Nosco – (CDA + MSR + AMM)

QMarkets – (MSR + AMM)

Ask Markets – (MSR + AMM)

Exago Markets – (CDA + optional AMM)

Gexid – (?)

ProKons – (?)

Spigit – (?)

HSX Virtual Markets – (Virtual Specialist + AMM)

HubDub – (MSR + AMM) – (not licensed)

Yahoo!‘s Prediction Exchange – (MSR + AMM + DPMM) – (not licensed)

Google‘s Prediction Exchange – (CDA) – (not licensed)

MicroSoft PredictionPoint – (MSR + AMM) – (not licensed)

InTrade – (CDA + AMM for play money) – (not licensed)

TradeSports – (CDA + AMM for play money) – (not licensed)

Iowa Electronic Markets – (CDA) – (not licensed)

HedgeStreet – (CDA) – (not licensed)

TradeFair – (CDA) – (not licensed)

BetFair – (CDA) – (not licensed)

Trading Technologies International – (CDA) – (not for event derivatives)

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Here’s a list of prediction market consultants:

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Robin Hanson – (George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)

  • Robin Hanson does prediction market consulting work, and have no exclusive arrangements.
  • “I’m more interested in helping groups that want to add lots of value to big decisions, versus groups that just want to dabble in a new fad.”

Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)

  • Adam Siegel
  • Nathan Kontny

NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.)

Xpree – (California, U.S.A.)

Chris Hibbert – (California, U.S.A.)

Justin Wolfers – (University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Business School, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)

  • Justin Wolfers takes on prediction market consulting work.
  • The prediction market industry is “a case where the interaction between firm practice and academic research are reasonably close.”

Koleman Strumpf – (University of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.)

  • Koleman Strumpf — Post Archive at Midas Oracle
  • Koleman Strumpf can be approached to consult on prediction market projects.
  • “Prediction markets help harness the knowledge of diverse groups. They have great potential as a tool for industry.”

Nosco – (Danemark, E.U.)

  • Jesper Krogstrup
  • Oliver Bernhard Pedersen

Qmarkets – (Israel)

  • Noam Danon

Ask Markets – (Greece, E.U.)

HP Services & HP Labs – (U.S.A.)

Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) & HSX Research – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

  • Prediction market consultancy firm
  • Movie business

IntelliMarket Systems – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

Gexid – Global Exchange for Information Derivatives – (Germany, E.U.)

  • Bernd Ankenbrand — Post Archive at Midas Oracle

ProKons – (Germany, E.U.)

  • Peter Gollowitsch

Exago Markets – (Portugal, E.U.)

  • Pedro Da Cunha

NimaniX – (Israel)

  • Elad Amir (CEO), Littal Shemer Haim (VP Business development), David Shahar (VP R&D)

Michael Giberson – (Texas, U.S.A.)

Other Consulting Firms

McKinsey – (U.S.A.)

Accenture – (U.S.A.)

Gartner – (U.S.A.)

Forrester – (U.S.A.)

The Boston Consulting Group – (U.S.A.)

CapGemini – (U.S.A.)

KPMG – (U.S.A.)

Price Waterhouse Cooper – (U.S.A.)

Ernst & Young – (U.S.A.)

Deloitte – (U.S.A.)

IBM – (U.S.A.)

EDS – (U.S.A.)

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]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/10/29/prediction-markets-forrester/feed/ 2 Enterprise prediction markets in Israel http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/11/enterprise-prediction-markets-in-israel/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/11/enterprise-prediction-markets-in-israel/#comments Mon, 11 Aug 2008 12:15:43 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=8161 Interesting news article about QMarkets of our good friend Noam Danon.

More links to EPMs consultants and EPMs software providers.

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]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/08/11/enterprise-prediction-markets-in-israel/feed/ 0 Where to find advice on how to set up your enterprise prediction markets http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/29/enterprise-prediction-markets-3/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/29/enterprise-prediction-markets-3/#comments Thu, 29 May 2008 16:01:14 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=7096 Continue reading →]]> Consultants

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Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)

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NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.)

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Xpree – (U.S.A.)

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HP Services – HP Labs – (U.S.A.)

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Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) & HSX Research – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

  • Prediction market consultancy firm
  • Movie business

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Chris Hibbert – (California, U.S.A.)

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Robin Hanson – (George Mason U., Virginia, U.S.A.)

  • Robin Hanson — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
  • Robin Hanson does prediction market consulting work, and have no exclusive arrangements.
  • “I’m more interested in helping groups that want to add lots of value to big decisions, versus groups that just want to dabble in a new fad.”

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Justin Wolfers – (U. of Pennsylvania’s Wharton business school, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)

  • Justin Wolfers — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
  • Justin Wolfers takes on prediction market consulting work.
  • The prediction market industry is “a case where the interaction between firm practice and academic research are reasonably close.”

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Koleman Strumpf – (U. of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.)

  • Koleman Strumpf — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
  • Koleman Strumpf can be approached to consult on prediction market projects.
  • “Prediction markets help harness the knowledge of diverse groups. They have great potential as a tool for industry.”

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Michael Giberson – (Virginia, U.S.A.)

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Robert Hahn – (American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.)

  • Robert Hahn — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
  • Robert Hahn does consulting focused on improving decision making in the private and public sector. “This work builds on our evolving understanding of prediction markets and other economic tools.”

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IntelliMarket Systems – (L.A., California, U.S.A.)

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Mercury Research and Consulting – (United Kingdom, E.U.)

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Ask Markets – (Greece, E.U.)

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Gexid – Global Exchange for Information Derivatives – (Germany, E.U.)

  • Bernd Ankenbrand — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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Nosco – (Danemark, E.U.)

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Qmarkets – (Israel)

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ProKons – (Germany)

  • Peter Gollowitsch

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Hive Insight – (Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, U.S.A. & London, U.K., E.U.)

  • Robert Wilburn (ex-NewsFutures)

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Foresight Markets – (??)

  • BPH Technologies

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NimaniX – (Israel)

  • Elad Amir (CEO), Littal Shemer Haim (VP Business development), David Shahar (VP R&D)

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PrediCom – (London, United Kingdom, E.U.)

  • Mikael Edholm

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]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/29/enterprise-prediction-markets-3/feed/ 0 Business looks promising for qMarkets. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/14/business-looks-promising-for-qmarkets/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/14/business-looks-promising-for-qmarkets/#comments Thu, 14 Feb 2008 14:42:33 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/14/business-looks-promising-for-qmarkets/ QMarkets CEO Noam Danon tells me that they have been working hard on their site. They are working with many companies that want to run enterprise prediction markets. Best wishes to qMarkets.

[Hey, I bet they run on Drupal.]

qMarkets

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/02/14/business-looks-promising-for-qmarkets/feed/ 0 New Prediction Markets Software Site – Qmarkets http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/05/new-prediction-markets-software-site-qmarkets/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/05/new-prediction-markets-software-site-qmarkets/#comments Fri, 05 Oct 2007 09:01:54 +0000 Noam Danon http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/10/05/new-prediction-markets-software-site-qmarkets/ Continue reading →]]> hi all,

First of all, I’m delighted to join this site – now as a blogger, and not just as a reader.

You’ll have to forgive me, but my first blog will go to “self promotion” of my new site – www.qmarkets.net.

Qmarkets allows anyone to create their own prediction markets (we simply refer to them as “Questions”), and invite people to trade (we call it simply “Answering”…). Our target audience is anyone – from corporate, bloggers, site owners etc.

You can either add your questions in our public marketplace, or you can create your own Qmarkets group (where you can limit it to your company employees, or make it a public group).

So – I’d be happy to hear your feedback on our new site, which was just launched 2 weeks ago (after a short Beta period). We have many new features waiting in our to-do list, so we’ll keep updaing our site in upcoming months.

I promise – starting on my next post, no more “Qmarkets promotion”…

Noam Danon,

Qmarkets CEO

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