Tag Archives: Niall Ferguson
Black Swan & Predicting World War I
The inspired John De Palma writes to me:
With the TradeSports Saddam contracts, Justin Wolfers had it relatively easy in inferring the extent to which an anticipated war was built into financial market pricing. (Paper – PDF file).
A similar analysis for WWI: “(…) Ferguson is intrigued by the behavior of the financial markets on the eve [...]
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