- Over the long run and many predictions, markets outperform most individuals;
- The more participants there are in a market, the more accurate it is (although there are diminishing returns);
- The more participants there are in a market, the fewer individuals are able to outperform its accuracy.

Read the rest, and subscribe to his new blog.

Every company faces the challenge of [finding out] what our company really knows — how do I access it, when I need it, how I need it — to help drive decision-making or results

Note that Emile estimates the total value of the collective intelligence market, globally, at “roughly $150 million to $250 million”. Ah.

Appendix: Lumenogic (ex-NewsFutures).

The DSK affair illustrates the difference between France and America. I’ll leave it to you.

Just in passing, here’s a Paris Match article on Emile Servan-Shreiber’s father (a media tycoon turned failed politician) about a time when he had concurrently his wife and a mistress, with knowledge and approval of both sides. Good old time.

“Collective intelligence for senior leadership”… — the word in bold tells us a lot.

2 green-foot French economists (David Thesmar and Augustin Landier) are hyping the prediction markets in the French media, using a non-scientific language (“predictive markets”, “stocks” *) and few references to hard facts. Their background is not stellar. They penned an Op-Ed in July 2007, titled, “The mega-crash won’t happen” [PDF file].

Of course, one year later, the developed world experienced (and is still experiencing) the worst financial crisis ever. What’s funny is that, in 2007, our 2 economists-in-chief were hyping the non-regulated credit derivatives that sent us into the depression, and denying the possibility of systemic risk. What a bunch of incompetents.

Emile, please recruit more serious people.

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[*] The good vocabulary is “prediction markets”, and “traded bets” or “event derivatives”.

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Next: French bozo economist Augustin Landier is hiding his 2007 Op-Ed that stated that the financial crisis “won’t happen”.

Next: French bozo economist David Thesmar is hiding his 2007 Op-Ed that stated that the financial crisis “won’t happen”.

And Today’s Le Figaro features prediction markets, Emile tells me…

«Du coup, assure Émile Servan-Schreiber, on ne lit plus les articles de la même manière, un peu comme un analyste financier qui traque l’info pour ensuite s’en servir dans ses recommandations d’investissement.»