Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: New York Senate

In November 2000, the Iowa Electronic Markets declared the AL GORE speculators as the winners of their zero-sum game.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 14, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Iowa Electronic Markets:
Release: Nov. 17, 2000
Iowa Electronic Markets name Gore winner in futures payoff
IOWA CITY, Iowa — The presidential election is over, at least in the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM). The IEM has declared Al Gore the popular vote winner over George W. Bush. Because the IEM follows the percentage of the national popular vote, [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Do Gambling Laws Threaten Prediction Markets?

Written by Tom W. Bell on March 5, 2007 — 2 Comments

Because prediction market traders generally rely more on skill than on chance to win, I’ve argued that they do not qualify in “gambling” as defined by U.S. law. I’ve also admitted, however, that over-ambitious prosecutors might see the matter differently. A recent email exchange I had with Prof. George R. Neumann, who serves [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Also tagged , , , ,

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