Tag Archives: New York Jets

Some interesting historical data on the Superbowl

Posted on February 2, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

From Allen St. John of the WSJ (subscription required): Over the last 22 Super Bowls, 18 — 86% of them — were won by the team that came into the game after allowing fewer regular-season points. (In the 2004-05 regular … Continue reading →

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Latest conditional probabilities for NFL playoff teams

Posted on January 8, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

As of noontime Mon Dec 8, the remaining 8 teams bayesian probabilities looked like this: 71% NFL.COLTS 70% NFL.PATRIOTS 67% NFL.CHARGERS 62% NFL.RAVENS 43% NFL.SEAHAWKS 41% NFL.EAGLES 35% NFL.SAINTS 32% NFL.BEARS I have included last week’s probabilities as well. Note … Continue reading →

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For those NFL fans who also subscribe to Bayes

Posted on January 4, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

Tradesports provides probability markets in Super Bowl and Conference victories. It logically follows that a team can only win the Super Bowl if it wins its conference, i.e. p (B | A) = 1. Bayes’ Theorem provides the probablity of … Continue reading →

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